DRAM/NAND Prices Short Term Affected by Japan-South Korea Trade Tension and Toshiba Outage
July 16, 2019 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 2 minutes
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, points out that after the Toshiba outage in mid-June, the Japanese government announced that it will be controlling South Korea-bound exports of three key materials used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, smartphones and panels, causing module manufacturers in the memory industry downstream to give higher quotes. However, since DRAM and NAND Flash inventories remain high, and that this is not a complete barring of materials but a prolonging of procedures, the possibility of a short-term, structural reversal of supply and demand is low.
The Japan-South Korea trade tensions raised news about a reversal in memory prices within the industry. TrendForce's analyses gives that the inventories of module manufacturers downstream are generally lower since DRAM prices have already been sliding fast for three consecutive quarters, and we therefore do see some module manufacturers raising their quotes or announcing halts to production in light of the material restrictions to signal a rebound. However, spot markets currently make up just less than 10% of the entire DRAM market; the supply-demand trend in the mid- and long-term remains dependent on contract markets, which make up over 90%.
Looking at demand, we see that whether PCs and smartphones at the retail end or the implementation of enterprise servers and datacenters, overall end demand still seems to be rather weak. Yet looking back at supply, we see DRAM suppliers generally sitting at over 3 months' worth of inventories, leading to a continual sliding of contract prices for PC, server and mobile DRAMs at the beginning of 3Q with no signs of reversal as of yet. TrendForce thinks the possibility of a structural reversal of supply and demand in the DRAM market to be slim.
The NAND flash market, on the other hand, is affected by Japan's increasingly stringent controls on materials exports and the Toshiba outage. Since wafer quotes are already a bit low, July is forecast to see rising quotes beginning from July. But considering the fact that suppliers generally have two to three months' worth of inventories in their possession, most module manufacturers won't be raising prices immediately from the get-go. Whether transaction prices will rise in the future still depends on the market and inventories on the supply side. As for quotes by OEMs for various SSD and eMMC/UFS products, although some suppliers have temporarily ceased shipments, TrendForce, judging from supply and demand and taking the inventories of OEMs into consideration, thinks that prices will come under downward pressure in the long term despite the short term increase in NAND flash prices.
About TrendForce
TrendForce is a global provider of the latest development, insight, and analysis of the technology industry. Having served businesses for over a decade, the company has built up a strong membership base of 435,000 subscribers. TrendForce has established a reputation as an organization that offers insightful and accurate analysis of the technology industry through five major research divisions: DRAMeXchange, WitsView, LEDinside, EnergyTrend and Topology. Founded in Taipei, Taiwan in 2000, TrendForce has extended its presence in China since 2004 with offices in Shenzhen and Beijing.
Suggested Items
SMT007 Magazine July—What’s Your Competitive Sweet Spot?
07/01/2025 | I-Connect007 Editorial TeamAre you in a niche that’s growing or shrinking? Is it time to reassess and refocus? We spotlight companies thriving by redefining or reinforcing their niche—what are their insights? In the July 2025 issue of SMT007 Magazine, we spotlight companies thriving by redefining or reinforcing their niche and offer insights to help you evaluate your own.
Global Dry Film Photoresist Market Set for Robust Growth with Expanding Semiconductor Ecosystem
06/24/2025 | PRNewswireIn 2024, the global market size of Dry Film Photoresist was estimated to be worth US$939 million and is forecast to reach approximately US$1191 million by 2031 with a CAGR of 3.5% during the forecast period 2025-2031.
The Big Picture: Our Big ‘Why’ in the Age of AI
06/25/2025 | Mehul Davé -- Column: The Big PictureWith advanced technology, Tesla, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI can quickly transform life as we know it. Several notable artificial intelligence (AI) studies, including the 2024 McKinsey Global Survey on AI, have offered insights into AI’s adoption, impact, and trajectory. The McKinsey study revealed that AI adoption continues to grow, with 50% of respondents reporting using AI in at least one business area.
Roll-to-Roll Technologies for Flexible Devices Set to Grow at 11.5% CAGR
06/11/2025 | GlobeNewswireAccording to the latest study from BCC Research, the “Global Markets for Roll-to-Roll Technologies for Flexible Devices” is expected to reach $69.8 billion by the end of 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2024 to 2029.
PC AIB Shipments Follow Seasonality, Show Nominal Increase for Q4’24
06/06/2025 | JPRAccording to a new research report from the analyst firm Jon Peddie Research, the growth of the global PC-based graphics add-in board market reached 9.2 million units in Q1'25 and desktop PC CPUs shipments decreased to 17.8 million units.