It’s Only Common Sense: Invest in Yourself—You’re Your Most Important Resource
Dan's Biz Bookshelf: 'Revenge of the Tipping Point'
Marcy's Musings: Engineering Economics
Walt Custer’s Market Report
June 12, 2017 | Barry Matties, I-Connect007Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Custer: I think that a laminate price increase was a significant part of it. If you looked at the growth or sales of laminate by month versus printed wiring boards in China and Taiwan, laminate did a big spike-up, which could be price-related. But probably people heard that things were going to be in short supply, so they were out doing some ordering. I think you have to look at that data over a couple of months and not any one month to draw that conclusion.
Matties: That panel discussion on laminate was interesting, regarding competing industries for the product line that have higher margins and less demand on quality.
Custer: Sure. Where would you sell it if you could get it at a much better price for copper foil in another industry?
Matties: With less demanding customers.
Custer: Exactly.
Matties: So when you look forward for the PCB fab sector in the U.S., what’s your forecast there?
Custer: History says it’s going to be flatter or a slow contraction. It’s been declining for years at a couple of percent a year. Every once in a while we get a growth spike, but if you average it out, it hasn’t been a growth industry.
Matties: When you see the call for manufacturing back to America, political persuasions aside, one thing that you mentioned is we might be getting manufacturing back, but it’s not necessarily bringing jobs back.
Custer: Sharp and Foxconn Hon Hai are considering building a flat-panel display plant. My guess is that it’s not going to employ a lot of people. It's probably going to be a fairly automated facility, but at least it’ll be bringing some business back to the U.S.
Matties: Supply chain business, anyway.
Custer: And if Apple really assembles in the USA, it’s likely that most of the components will come from Asia, at least initially. So, yes, I think maybe the tide has turned, but I don’t think it’s going to be a boom in six months. It’s going to take time. The whole supply chain has moved to Asia, so getting it back is not just convincing Apple to assemble iPhones here. It’s a lot more than that. Final assembly based in the USA using all imported components will only be a modest step forward in bringing electronic manufacturing back to the USA.
Matties: I know you do a lot of research. Any surprises over the last year that came to you?
Custer: Well, I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about what’s going to be the next big market drivers, because personal computer and tablet demand has flattened out.
Matties: You could say it’s automotive, but…
Custer: Yeah, certainly automotive. The electronic content in cars is going up all the time, virtual reality, augmented reality, the Internet of Things. I think that’s going to be mostly a component boom but those IoT sensors still have to be packaged and “talk” to something.
Robots…I was talking to Happy [Holden] and I said that I think robots are a two-edged sword because they’re going to automate manufacturing but they’re probably also going to put people out of jobs. His theory was, at least short-term, robots aren’t going to grow as fast as I had thought because there aren’t engineers to program those robots, so that a massive robot takeover is going to take time. And robots still aren’t as nimble as humans for a lot of things. They can do repetitive tasks but are not as flexible as humans for many applications.
There are a lot of things on the horizon. The medical electronics industry and remote surgery is a pretty exciting field.
Matties: Then the point about reliable Internet needs to be considered, too [laughs].
Custer: But a lot of these things are going to take time to develop. I think 5G is probably going to have the biggest volume impact short-term because not only are people going to go to 5G Internet connections, but 5G is also going to drive the Internet of Things. It’s going to drive autonomous cars. It’s going to drive a lot of things that rely on fast connection. It has to be very fast and very reliable, and so that will have a lot of demand.
Matties: Any final thoughts for our readers?
Custer: If anyone wants a copy of the talk I gave today you can write to walt@custerconsulting.com and I’ll send you the charts.
Matties: All right, and you also provide a news service to the industry. Tell the readers a little bit about that.
Custer: Well, I think you guys do that, too, to some extent, but my son Jon scours the world for news articles and tries to find one of each kind. I think it’s fairly good. We have a lot of people who get it. It has no ads, and then, it’s strictly news delivered six days a week. We have a cover page where you can click on each individual item, and go to a full news story.
Matties: Good, and people can subscribe to that at your website as well?
Custer: Yeah, or send us an email. You could also subscribe to all our charts and data which are downloadable from a Sharefile site, so we offer those as annual subscription products.
Matties: Walt, thanks for your talk today, and thanks for taking the time for our readers.
Custer: Thanks, Barry.
Page 2 of 2
Share on:
Suggested Items
Unlocking Advanced Circuitry Through Liquid Metal Ink
10/31/2024 | I-Connect007 Editorial TeamPCB UHDI technologist John Johnson of American Standard Circuits discusses the evolving landscape of electronics manufacturing and the critical role of innovation, specifically liquid metal ink technology, as an alternate process to traditional metallization in PCB fabrication to achieve ever finer features and tighter tolerances. The discussion highlights the benefits of reliability, efficiency, and yields as a tradeoff to any increased cost to run the process. As this technology becomes better understood and accepted, even sought out by customers and designers, John says there is a move toward mainstream incorporation.
Fresh PCB Concepts: The Critical Nature of Copper Thickness on PCBs
10/31/2024 | Team NCAB -- Column: Fresh PCB ConceptsPCBs are the backbone of modern electronics and the copper layers within these boards serve as the primary pathways for electrical signals. When designing and manufacturing PCBs, copper thickness is one of the most critical factors and significantly affects the board’s performance and durability. The IPC-6012F specification, the industry standard for the performance and qualification of rigid PCBs, sets clear guidelines on copper thickness to ensure reliability in different environments and applications.
Book Excerpt: The Printed Circuit Designer’s Guide to... DFM Essentials, Ch. 1
10/25/2024 | I-Connect007The guidelines offered in this book are based on both ASC recommendations and IPC standards with the understanding that some may require adjustment based on the material set, fabricator processes, and other design constraints. This chapter details high-frequency materials, copper foil types, metal core PCBs, and the benefits of embedded capacitance and resistor materials in multilayer PCBs.
The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Direct Metallization
10/21/2024 | Carmichael Gugliotti, MacDermid AlphaCarmichael Gugliotti of MacDermid Alpha discusses the innovative realm of direct metallization technology, its numerous applications, and significant advantages over traditional processes. Carmichael offers an in-depth look at how direct metallization, through developments such as Blackhole and Shadow, is revolutionizing PCB manufacturing by enhancing efficiency, sustainability, and cost-effectiveness. From its origins in the 1980s to its application in cutting-edge, high-density interconnects and its pivotal role in sustainability, this discussion sheds light on how direct metallization shapes the future of PCB manufacturing across various industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and beyond.
Connect the Dots: Designing for Reality—Pattern Plating
10/16/2024 | Matt Stevenson -- Column: Connect the DotsIn the previous episode of I-Connect007’s On the Line with… podcast, we painted the picture of the outer layer imaging process. Now we are ready for pattern plating, where fabrication can get tricky. The board is now ready to receive the copper traces, pads, and other elements specified in the original CAD design. This article will lay out the pattern plating process and discuss constraints in the chemistries that must be properly managed to meet the customer's exacting manufacturing tolerances.