U.S. Manufacturing PMI Dips in February

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Production continued to expand across the U.S. manufacturing sector in February, albeit at a softer pace. Where a rise in output was reported, panellists linked this to a sustained upturn in new business and efforts to clear backlogs of work. The solid increase was, however, the weakest since September 2017 as some firms noted a lull in client demand.

New Orders

New orders received by manufacturers rose further in February, thereby extending the current sequence of growth that spans the entire survey history. Anecdotal evidence stated that greater client activity was driving the upturn in new orders. Though strong, the pace of expansion was the slowest since June 2017.

New Export Orders

New export order growth picked up slightly during February. That said, the upturn was broadly in line with the series trend and marginal overall. A number of surveyed firms suggested that higher export sales stemmed from greater foreign client demand.

Backlogs of Work

The level of outstanding business continued to rise at U.S. manufacturing firms in February, extending the current sequence of backlog accumulation that began in August 2017. Greater amounts of work-in-hand were linked to a sustained rise in new orders. Nonetheless, the rate of accumulation was only fractional and the slowest in the aforementioned sequence, reportedly reflecting a softer upturn in new business.

Stocks of Finished Goods

Post-production inventories were unchanged in February following two consecutive monthly falls in stock levels. Where a rise was reported, panellists suggested this was due to stockpiling activity to ensure the quick shipment of goods. However, others noted that the slowdown in new orders had led to greater usage of current inventories.

Employment

U.S. manufacturing firms continued to register a rise in employment in February, with workforce numbers increasing at a solid rate. The pace of job creation was also faster than the series trend, and commonly attributed to greater production requirements and the replacement of staff.

Output Prices

U.S. manufacturing firms registered a further increase in output charges in February. Higher factory gate prices were attributed to the pass-through of greater input costs to clients. The rate of charge inflation was solid and faster than the long-run series average. The was despite easing from that seen at the start of the year to the second-slowest since December 2017.

Input Prices

Input prices paid by manufacturers rose sharply in February, despite the rate of inflation easing to an 18-month low. Greater cost burdens reportedly stemmed from higher raw material prices, with a number of firms continuing to highlight the ongoing impact of tariffs. The pace of increase was, however, slower than the series trend.

Suppliers’ Delivery Times

The seasonally adjusted Suppliers' Delivery Times Index signalled a further deterioration in vendor performance across the U.S. manufacturing sector in February. Longer lead times were attributed to capacity shortages at suppliers. Deliveries were delayed to a lesser extent compared to 2018 as a whole, but the rate of deterioration remained greater than the series trend.

Quantity of Purchases

Purchasing activity across the U.S. goods-producing sector increased in February, albeit at a slightly softer pace. The still solid rise in input buying was linked to restocking and a rise in output. That said, the rate of growth was slower than those seen throughout the majority of 2018 and was the second-weakest expansion since September 2017.

Stocks of Purchases

As has been the case each month since June 2017, stocks of purchases at manufacturing firms increased in February. The rise in pre-production inventories was linked to efforts to clear backlogs and expectations of further growth in new business. Nonetheless, the increase was only fractional and the slowest in the current 21-month sequence of expansion.

Future Output 

U.S. manufacturers were generally upbeat in February, with around 33% of monitored firms expecting a rise in output over the coming 12 months. Anecdotal evidence suggested positive sentiment was linked to optimism surrounding future new business growth and investment in new product development. That said, the degree of confidence was below the series trend and the second-lowest since November 2016.

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