Dissecting the IPC Regional Survey on PCB Technology Trends

Estimated reading time: 21 minutes

Fritz: From my standpoint, it was you’re not sleeping at all. You have challenges ahead to implement the technology that you think is going to be required, but you understand the technology and where it’s going. So, you’re going to have to concentrate on keeping good people, raising capital for equipment, specialization, etc., but you’re not technologically asleep.

Carano: To echo Denny, if you’re going to be in this business five years from now, you’re going to do a couple of things. One, you’re going to consider looking at bleeding-edge technology, like the internet of things (IoT) and virtual and augmented reality. Those are things that are going to be significant for military and medical; it’s not just a fad or some kid wearing fancy glasses, playing games. Virtual and augmented reality are going to revolutionize how we repair automobiles and learn to fly airplanes and how physicians learn how to do operations. This is going to be something to invest in circuit board technology that needs to go there.

Regarding automotive reliability, the safety navigation aspects of the automobile, the early warning of accidents, and the control board are growing by leaps and bounds. We’re just scratching the surface. It’s going to overtake your basic consumer stuff in a short period of time in terms of the number of electronics. They’re predicting $6,000–7,000 of automotive electronics per car over the next three years. I was just in Washington, D.C., at the IPC board meeting and IMPACT Washington where people were talking about types of technology and the growth in automotive.

Internet infrastructure and bandwidth are still going to be a big part of the servers and the cloud. Everybody thinks the cloud is up in the air, but it’s on the ground, and that’s going to be key. Data protection, privacy, and security are things that are driving what’s going to keep North American circuit board fabricators in business. As Denny said, the question is, "Are they going to keep up with the investments necessary?" We're doing more and more sequential lamination boards over here with multiple laminations, heavy copper, thicker boards, smaller holes, and finer lines and spaces.

We've already talked about the importance of what the investments have to be in terms of getting there. You must upgrade your imaging technology with standard and UV light and your etching. You have to go to laser direct imaging—potentially LED imaging—and make improvements in material handling. How do you handle thin materials instead of just 062 rigid? You have to be able to handle the 7-, 5- and 3-mil core stuff.

I work with 2-mil core right now in Milwaukee at a small fabricator that employs 90 people. They're doing 2-mil core and seven sequential lams. That’s where they’re going. They have two LDIs. They don’t even use conventional light sources. They’ve made the investment, which is why they’re so darn profitable for a small organization. They’ve figured it out and made the investments by talking to the end users, and they’re doing it with high yield. It’s all about yields. And how are you going to get those yields? Technology will decide yields. If you’re a North American fabricator, like Denny said, you’re staying awake at night figuring this one out. What am I going to invest in? If you’re going to continue to do what you’re doing today three years from now, you’re probably not going to be around.

Johnson: That’s a good point. At no point did you say anything that would even hint that a U.S. manufacturer should start planning to size up in order to out-manufacture the Chinese. Let’s move over to Asia. They have a completely different set of capabilities not in manufacturing skills, but in the quantity that they can build. What does this report mean to them?

Fritz: They are placing themselves to be able to produce in volume, at a profit, most anything that comes along. There is some differentiation, and they’re more oriented toward consumer handheld stuff. But automotive is starting to pick that technology up, including instrumentation, communications, etc. I’m sure they’re watching the AI and virtual reality “at the edge,” and their customers are going to be getting AI at the source, whether it’s a drone that’s flying or a car that’s driving itself. They’re not waiting on all of this stuff going to the cloud to be able to use AI because I see that as a far bigger trend.

They’re aware of what their customers are doing, and again, watching their market shares and competing fiercely with other people in their countries or the big four countries in Asia that are capable of most everything. Japan, for instance, has pretty much given up on volume manufacture of almost anything. They are becoming a lot more mirrored to what the U.S. industry is able to provide. But Taiwan and Korea are producing in volume, and we all know China now makes more than half the circuit boards in the world.

Johnson: Let’s continue right on over to the European manufacturers and fabricators. What should they pay attention to?

Carano: Again, for the Europeans, they’re all pretty small- or medium-sized fabricators. They mirror North America on the technology level. With a few exceptions—such as AT&S—they are primarily in the space of high-end automotive and telecommunications, including Nokia. That’s a big driver for them. On the automotive side, you have Bosch, Rolls-Royce, Continental Automotive, etc. Their big push is long-term reliability, as Denny said. Building selected technology to last twice as long as it does today under harsher end-use environments. We use the term harsh use environment (HUE), including the outdoors, bay stations, satellites, and of course, automotive with high revving engines, hot and cold temperatures, and vibration.

That’s the space they’re in, so they’re doing HDI and are attuned to high, long-term reliability more than the Asians, as Denny said. With a lot of Asian stuff, even though it’s high technology in terms of how the board is built, it’s not necessarily built for high-end, long-term reliability. There’s a finite life there. Europe is much like North America and can’t afford to have short-term reliability. They won’t let it happen.

Those types of technologies build long-term reliability as well as thicker boards and better plating technologies, but not so much the laser direct imaging. But they are moving towards that. Again, they need high layer counts and material sets that allow them to move into higher temperatures and harsh use environments. You’ll see a lot of change in the material sets that are used in the next three to five years.

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