AI Drives Carrier Boards to Return to Growth, Global Market will Reach $15.32B in 2024

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Driven by emerging applications such as electric vehicles, AI and high-speed computing, the semiconductor industry is in a booming stage. Among them, IC carrier boards, which are crucial for packaging, have also attracted much attention. However, affected by global inflation in 2023, the consumer market will cool down rapidly, which will also affect the demand for carrier boards. Whether it is BT carrier boards used in mobile phones and memories, or ABF carrier boards used in CPUs and GPUs, there has been a decline. According to statistics from the Institute of Obstetrics and Mechanics of the Industrial Research Institute, the global output value of carrier boards in 2023 will be approximately US$13.34 billion, a decrease of 26.7% from 2022.

Looking forward to 2024, although the global economy still faces many uncertainties and geopolitical risks remain, as the inventory adjustment of end products takes effect and the consumer market shows signs of recovery, it will help the global carrier board market to recover. Especially driven by the strong demand for AI, it will further drive the recovery of high-end carrier boards. The global carrier board market is expected to reach US$15.32 billion in 2024, an increase of 14.8% from 2023.

In the global market, Taiwan is the largest carrier board supplier, accounting for approximately 32.8% of the overall output value; followed by Japan (27.6%) and South Korea (27.0%). The top five carrier board manufacturers are Taiwan's Xinxing (16.0%), South Korea's SEMCO (9.9%), Japan's Ibiden (9.3%), Austria's AT&S (9.1%) and Taiwan's Nandian (8.7%). Domestic carrier board manufacturers account for more than half of the global share IC carrier boards are divided into two categories: BT and ABF according to different substrate materials. In 2023, the overall demand for BT carrier boards will decline significantly due to the dual pressures of the decline of consumer electronics such as mobile phones and computers and the surge in memory inventories. In 2023, the global BT carrier board output value will be approximately US$6.18 billion, a decrease of 27.1%. According to Gartner's forecast, the memory market will recover strongly in 2024, with revenue expected to surge by 66.3%. As the memory market becomes active, the demand for related carrier boards will also be boosted. The global BT carrier board market is expected to grow by 16.5% in 2024, reaching US$7.20 billion.

In 2023, although AI servers are hot, ABF carrier boards will decline significantly due to the decline of the computer market and lower-than-expected demand for general servers. In 2023, the global ABF substrate output value will be approximately US$7.16 billion, a decrease of 26.3%. With the increasing demand for AI computing power and the development of advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS + 2.5D packaging that closely integrates HBM and GPU, it will help promote the development of ABF carrier boards in the direction of large area, multi-layer count and thin lines. In addition, AI PC is also expected to drive a replacement wave and promote the recovery of the ABF carrier board market. The global ABF carrier board market is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2024, reaching US$8.12 billion.

Looking to the future, although Taiwan, Japan and South Korea account for nearly 90% of global carrier boards, China and the United States are catching up. Among them, mainland China will use the "new quality productivity" strategy to achieve technological self-sufficiency. In addition to continuing to provide subsidies to the semiconductor industry, it will also actively increase the degree of autonomy of basic equipment such as AI chips, servers, switches, and RF radio frequencies. With the support of government funds and huge domestic demand market, mainland China's carrier board industry does have the opportunity to break through existing limitations and expand its influence in the future global market. On the other hand, the United States also continues to promote the localization of semiconductor supply chains. On November 20, 2023, the United States announced the National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Plan (NAPMP), which will invest US$3 billion in advanced packaging pilot facilities, workforce training and project subsidies. Carrier boards are also included in this plan, which is sustainable. Observe whether the carrier board will affect the layout of global carrier board factories in North America after it is regarded as a strategic material by the United States.

Emerging application demands drive carrier board technology innovation, such as servers, high-computing power AI chips and memory (HBM), which are in short supply, and Intel announced in 2023 that it plans to achieve mass production of glass substrates by 2030, etc., allowing advanced packaging technology to Through horizontal or vertical integration of chips, it breaks through the limitations of traditional transistor density and opens up new possibilities for high-end applications such as HPC and AI. It is the key to the future development of the semiconductor and substrate industries.