Global Notebook Shipments Expected to Grow by 3.7% in 2024, with Supply Chain Relocation Rising to 12.4%

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TrendForce reports that the impact of geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties has led to more conservative budget allocations in the consumer market. Consequently, global notebook shipments are projected to reach 173.65 million units in 2024—marking a 3.7% increase compared to 2023. The demand for new devices is expected to be more concentrated primarily in the entry-level consumer and education markets.

TrendForce notes that while AI notebooks are set to be launched in the second half of 2024, their high prices are likely to delay consumer purchasing decisions. The substantial contributions of AI models in the supply chain are anticipated to become evident in 2025, driven by demands for business upgrades, which are expected to boost global notebook shipments by 5% year-on-year.

Vietnam’s share of notebook manufacturing to rise to 6%, with Thailand emerging as a new contender

The global supply chain landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years. Notebook brands are diversifying their supply chain strategies in response to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and rising labor costs. Consequently, OEMs are gradually relocating production lines out of China and turning to Vietnam and Thailand as favored alternatives. These countries have attracted significant investment due to their lower labor costs, improving infrastructure, and growing domestic markets.

TrendForce highlights that Vietnam’s share of global notebook manufacturing is expected to rise to 6% in 2024, driven by the proactive efforts of Dell and Apple. Although Thailand is a relative newcomer, its global production share is set to climb rapidly to 2.3%, fueled by HP’s close collaboration with Quanta and Inventec’s entry into local production in the second half of the year.

Diversifying production to meet different market demands will only grow more popular due to geopolitical factors. TrendForce estimates that the proportion of notebook manufacturing outside China will increase from 7.2% in 2023 to 12.4% in 2024. Nevertheless, China remains a key player in global notebook production owing to its vast manufacturing capacity and comprehensive supply chain. This is especially true for end markets with lower geopolitical sensitivity and the domestic Chinese market, where China’s mature manufacturing system continues to offer competitive advantages, maintaining its critical position in the global supply chain.

As global notebook production moves toward greater diversification and flexibility, the ability to adapt swiftly and adjust supply chain strategies to remain competitive will be a major challenge for notebook brands within a complex global environment.