Conference Board LEI for TCB/FGV Brazil Down in July

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), fell 0.8 percent in July. The index now stands at 88.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in June and a 0.1 percent decline in May. The services sector survey: expectations index, the exports volume index, the consumers survey: expectations index, and stock prices all contributed negatively to the index in July.

"The downward trend in the Leading Economic Index for Brazil that started in early 2013 continued through July, suggesting Brazil's economy is unlikely to turn around in the near future," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "Moreover, the persistent and widespread weaknesses among the Coincident Economic Index components confirm that Brazil remains in a recession."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent to 103.2 (2010 = 100) in July, following a 0.1 percent decline in June and a 0.3 percent decline in May. All six components contributed positively to the index in July.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, India, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.