Conference Board LEI for the U.S. Declined Slightly

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in September to 123.3 (2010 = 100). The Index was unchanged in August and July.

“Despite September’s decline, the U.S. LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The recent weakness in stock markets, the manufacturing sector and housing permits was offset by gains in financial indicators, and to a lesser extent improvements in consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The U.S. economy is on track for moderate growth of about 2.5 percent in the coming quarters, despite the mixed global economic landscape.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 112.8 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in September to 119.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July. 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.