Conference Board LEI for Australia Declined

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in September.

• The Conference Board LEI for Australia declined slightly in September, with the large negative contribution from share prices more than offsetting the positive contributions from money supply and yield spread. Between March and September 2015, the leading economic index decreased 0.9 percent (about a −1.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from the growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
• The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, improved in September for the fifth consecutive month. The coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending September 2015, moderately less than its growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, down from 3.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
• The Conference Board LEI for Australia decreased in September and has declined in six of the last seven months. As a result, the six-month growth rate of the LEI has remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Australia continues to increase, but its six-month growth rate has moderated in recent months. The downward trend in the LEI combined with the slower growth rate of the CEI suggests that the current economic expansion will continue at a modest pace in the near-term, but downside risks may persist.

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