The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for France Declined

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for France declined 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in September.

The Conference Board LEI for France edged down in September, with stock price and industrial new orders making the largest negative contributions. In the six-month period ending in September 2015, the leading economic index increased 1.2 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), slightly below its growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) over the prior six months, and the strengths among its components have remained widespread.

The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, rose slightly in September. The coincident economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) between March and September 2015, down from 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP advanced at 1.4 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, following 0.2 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of this year.

Despite September’s decline, the France LEI continued to improve over the recent six months. Meanwhile, the CEI increased in the past two months, after being virtually flat since January, with more widespread strengths than weaknesses among its components. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth is likely to continue at a moderate pace in the coming year.

Leading Indicators. Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for France increased in September. The positive contributors to the index—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—were production expectations, the yield spread, and new unemployment claims (inverted). The negative contributors to the index—beginning with the largest negative contributor—were the stock price index, industrial new orders and building permits (residential). The ratio deflator of value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing* remained unchanged in September.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in September, the leading economic index now stands at 112.9 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in both August and July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.2 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 78.6 percent).

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