How to Reduce Emissions and Maintain Prosperity

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Since the first UN Earth Summit in 1992, governments have been trying to encourage sound environmental management in tandem with economic growth and social welfare. From 30 November – 11 December, delegates from more than 190 nations will meet at the 21st annual Conference of Parties (COP 21) in Paris. This year’s meeting is geared towards forming a legally binding agreement on limiting climate change, the first of its kind since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. We took a look at some Imperial projects that are having an impact at COP 21 and beyond.

Accountability

In the run-up to the Paris talks, countries have been submitting their plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions after 2020. Using this data, researchers from Imperial and collaborators at the international network Climate-KIC, have created a Climate Calculator to assess just how effective the changes will be. In partnership with the Financial Times, the Calculator has been turned into an interactive graphic with funding from the Grantham Institute.

Their calculations predict that even with the proposed cuts, global warming could still reach up to four degrees Celsius (4°C) of warming by 2100, overshooting the 2°C warming threshold that could spell ‘dangerous and irreversible’ climate change.

A ‘business as usual’ scenario where countries do nothing to limit their emissions would likely cause a global temperature rise up to 6°C or more.

“It is imperative the Paris agreement includes a system requiring countries to drastically ramp up emissions cuts beyond their current promises,” said Dr Jeremy Woods, from Imperial’s Centre for Environmental Policy and a collaborator on the Calculator.

The FT Climate Calculator allows users to pick apart the contributions of different regions and their respective plans. Users can also change the plans to see what level of action would be needed to reach the 2°C warming goal.

“What is clear from our analysis is that no country is doing enough but some countries are doing far less than they are capable of doing,” said Dr Rajiv Chaturvedi of the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, a collaborator on the Calculator’s data.

For example, Russia has tabled plans to cut emissions by 30 percent of 1990 levels by 2030. However, its emissions in 2030 will be similar to those of 2010. The researchers suggest that to make a meaningful contribution to limiting climate change, Russia needs to cut its emissions by up to 40 percent of 2010 levels.

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