Economic Growth Continues; Manufacturing Growth Expected in 2016

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Economic growth in the United States will continue in 2016, say the nation's purchasing and supply management executives in their December 2015 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations are for a continuation of the economic recovery that began in mid-2009, as indicated in the monthly ISM Report On Business. The manufacturing sector is optimistic about growth in 2016, with revenues expected to increase in 16 manufacturing industries, and the non-manufacturing sector predicts that 15 of its industries will see higher revenues. Capital expenditures, a major driver in the U.S. economy, are expected to increase by 1 percent in the Manufacturing sector and by 7.5 percent in the non-manufacturing sector. Manufacturing expects that its employment base will grow by 0.2 percent, while non-manufacturing expects employment growth of 1.7 percent.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®). The forecast was released today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and by Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary

Expectations for 2016 are positive as 63 percent of survey respondents expect revenues to be greater in 2016 than in 2015. The panel of purchasing and supply executives expects a 4.1 percent net increase in overall revenues for 2016, compared to a 1.4 percent increase reported for 2015 over 2014 revenues. The 16 manufacturing industries expecting revenue improvement in 2016 over 2015 — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electrical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

"Manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect to see growth in 2016. They are optimistic about their overall business prospects for the first half of 2016, and are more optimistic about the second half of 2016," said Holcomb. "In 2015, manufacturing experienced 10 consecutive months of growth from January through October, followed by one month of contraction in November, resulting in an average PMI of 51.7 for the first 11 months of 2015 as reported in the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. Our forecast calls for more growth in 2016. Respondents expect raw materials pricing pressures in 2016 to be very low, and expect their profit margins will improve in 2016 over 2015. Manufacturers are also predicting growth in both exports and imports in 2016."

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