Global Growth to Hover between 2.5% and 3.0% in 2016

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“The good news is that the usual 'recovery killers' are a distant threat,” Behravesh said.

First, with a few exceptions, policy tightening is not a danger to recoveries in most parts of the world—in fact, from a global perspective, monetary policy may become a little more stimulative in 2016. Second, the net effect of the commodity rout on global growth is still positive, albeit smaller than before. Third, asset bubbles (and the potential for them bursting) are not a significant hazard. Finally, while the risk of even slower growth in China is high, the impacts on the developed world and commodity-importing emerging markets is limited.

“The one risk that could derail global growth in the near term is a big oil shock, triggered by an escalation of the Middle East conflicts—fortunately, the probability of such an event in 2016 is still relatively low,” Behravesh said.

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