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2016 Semiconductor Sales to Go Negative
March 28, 2016 | Semico ResearchEstimated reading time: 1 minute
Semico's Inflection Point Indicator is a model we have developed which has a history of accurately predicting semiconductor revenue inflection points four quarters in advance. After analyzing current trends, it seems the semiconductor industry is repeating the pattern from 2011-2012, albeit at a muted level. Just in the past 4-5 years, the major end markets served by the semiconductor industry--tablets, notebooks, smartphones--have matured, causing growth rates to slow. On top of that, compared to 2012, most of the world's economies are forecast to be weaker in 2016, with the exception of India. Finally, DRAM prices are expected to be weaker this year, compared to 2012. The positive growth in 2013-2014 was primarily due to the memory shortage and the subsequent rising prices.
ASPs in January recovered on lower revenues, which were down 6% year over year. Although ASPs rose 4.0% in January, they are still historically low. Semico president Jim Feldhan commented, "In the past 8 months, the industry has seen ASPs in the $0.41 range 5 times. One has to go back to May 2009 to find a lower price, and 2009 was not a good year!"
The IPI Report is Semico's most popular report series that accurately predicts semiconductor revenue inflection points four quarters in advance. This is one of the best ways to stay up to date on semiconductor trends as each article seeks to discuss how current trends will affect the market over the next year along with detailed forecasts.
The monthly IPI Report includes excerpts from recent Semico studies and the quarterly Semico Worldwide Semiconductor Sales Forecast in device detail (Units, Dollars, and ASPs).
About Semico
Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company located in Phoenix, Arizona.
Semico was founded in 1994 by a group of semiconductor industry experts. We have improved the validity of semiconductor product forecasts via technology roadmaps in end-use markets.
Semico offers custom consulting, portfolio packages, individual market research studies and premier industry conferences.
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