-
- News
- Books
Featured Books
- pcb007 Magazine
Latest Issues
Current IssueEngineering Economics
The real cost to manufacture a PCB encompasses everything that goes into making the product: the materials and other value-added supplies, machine and personnel costs, and most importantly, your quality. A hard look at real costs seems wholly appropriate.
Alternate Metallization Processes
Traditional electroless copper and electroless copper immersion gold have been primary PCB plating methods for decades. But alternative plating metals and processes have been introduced over the past few years as miniaturization and advanced packaging continue to develop.
Technology Roadmaps
In this issue of PCB007 Magazine, we discuss technology roadmaps and what they mean for our businesses, providing context to the all-important question: What is my company’s technology roadmap?
- Articles
- Columns
Search Console
- Links
- Media kit
||| MENU - pcb007 Magazine
2020 EIPC Winter Conference, Day 1
March 9, 2020 | Pete Starkey, I-Connect007Estimated reading time: 21 minutes
In mid-February, there were two major attractions in the Blijdorp area of Rotterdam, the main port city in the Dutch province of South Holland—the Rotterdam Zoo and the EIPC Winter Conference. The Rotterdam Zoo is open every day of the year, but the premier event of the season was the 2020 EIPC Winter Conference on February 13–14, which attracted around 90 delegates from a dozen European countries—as well as a few from North America—to an outstanding learning and networking experience for members of the PCB community. The programme of more than 20 presentations and panel discussions, together with a table-top and poster exhibition, covered the theme “The Needs for Next-Generation Electronic Devices and Changes in Fabrication Solutions for PCBs, PCBAs, Materials, and Technologies.”
EIPC president Alun Morgan welcomed all to the conference and gratefully acknowledged the support of the sponsors. He invited members to adopt the revised statutes of the association, and these were received very positively. Morgan also took the opportunity to remind everyone that the ECWC15 World Convention would be held at the end of November 2020 in Hong Kong and Shenzhen and that there was scope for additional papers to be submitted.
“It’s 2020. What shall I talk about?” he continued. He reviewed predictions that had been made 10 years previously and some of the scientific discoveries and medical advances made during the last decade. It had been said that there would be no need for futurists to predict the future because progress in AI would make them redundant.
Time-honoured as the opening presentation was Walt Custer’s eagerly-awaited Business Outlook on the global electronics industry, with emphasis on Europe. Unfortunately, Walt was unable to travel to the conference, but he sent his best regards and delegated the delivery to Alun Morgan, who did a fine job as his deputy.
Although this edition of Custer’s business outlook had been compiled before coronavirus had distorted the 2020 situation, the fact remained that global manufacturing growth had reached bottom based on data from purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs). Tariffs, trade disputes, and the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union were key issues, and geopolitical concerns remained very significant. However, Custer’s observation that most sectors of the world electronic supply chain were now expanding slowly had to be qualified in the context of quarantine restrictions in China.
Custer considered the PMIs to be “useful but sobering leading indicators,” and figures for Europe had shown a continuing contraction toward the end of 2019—the only notable area of growth being in medical electronics. Production in the European automotive industry was down because of uncertainty about the future of diesel power, and mil-aero revenues were flat, as were volume consumer-electronics markets. However, there were substantial growth forecasts for 5G handsets and infrastructure.
World PCB production had been almost static for the last three years. Based on 2018 figures, the $74.5 billion total split by geographical area was China 54% and Taiwan and South Korea 10% each. Europe only represented 3.1% against North America’s 4.2%. The number of PCB manufacturers in Europe had declined to 202, with the majority of the revenue being generated in the German-speaking countries. Michael Gasch had predicted that Europe would close 2019 with a loss of 10% against 2018. “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
Hans Friedrichkeit believed that there was a glimmer of hope in the German industry because the downturn in incoming orders had slowed, and the automotive industry was likely to stabilise. “It looks as if the bottom of the economic valley of tears has been passed.”
Custer’s opinion was that the world market had reached the bottom and was beginning to improve, although the first quarter of 2020 could be significantly influenced by the consequences of coronavirus. Trade disputes had impacted long-standing regional alliances and U.S.-driven impulsive market actions remained as problems. He believed that electronic assembly might shift globally to countries less affected by tariffs and that many good new electronic products were on the horizon. In particular, 5G offered exciting opportunities for the next decade.
The following presentation was Dr. Hayao Nakahara’s outlook on PCBs in automotive electronics. Dr. Nakahara apologised that he was unable to attend in person and asked EIPC Technical Director Tarja Rapala-Virtanen to deliver the presentation on his behalf.
There was a continuing steady 5–6% annual increase in PCB usage as a consequence of the increasing functionality of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The growth in electric-motor-driven cars was slower than had been predicted, and despite the hype about autonomous vehicles, it was unlikely that completely driverless cars (Level 5) would be generally available before 2030. “How can Level-5 cars make decisions in the streets of Saigon, Hanoi, and Jakarta where millions of motorbikes cut in front of you all the time?”
Sales of electric vehicles were still constrained by the price and life expectancy of lithium batteries. The typical cost in 2018 was $200 per kilowatt-hour. It was forecast that this could be reduced to less than $100 by 2023, which would certainly stimulate the market. The world sales of new light vehicles were 90.3 million units, but the world’s largest market, China, continued to shrink as a consequence of reduced tax rebates, a general economic downturn, and increasing sales of used cars.
Reliability of automotive electronics was a fundamental consideration, with 200–300 sensors per car, and security remained an important issue, particularly in the context of connected vehicle technologies Dr. Nakahara estimated the automotive share of world PCB output to be 11% in 2109. The value of PCBs per car ranged from $30–40 at the low end to $100–150 at the high end, averaging $50–70 per car, and it had been estimated that the electronics content of a car might rise to 50% of its total value. “To replace bumpers and headlamps will not be cheap anymore in the future.”Page 1 of 5
Suggested Items
HyRel Announces Sale of First Versacell Robotic System to Leading Defense Contractor
12/03/2024 | HyRelHyRel Technologies, a global provider of quick-turn semiconductor modification solutions, is proud to announce the sale of its first Versacell Robotic Solder Dip & BGA Reballing System to one of the top five defense contractors. Originally developed for internal use, the revolutionary Versacell System drew the attention of the contractor, who recognized its impressive precision, accuracy, and efficiency.
Nolan’s Notes: Soldering Technologies
12/03/2024 | Nolan Johnson -- Column: Nolan's NotesThere are schools of thought that soldering methods are similarly anachronistic but still useful enough not to be worth changing. While that may be true, I see that soldering technologies are experiencing significant changes. It might not be apparent on the surface, but changes are afoot, and there are some disruptive things underway as well.
SMT007 Magazine Explores Soldering Technologies—December 2024
12/02/2024 | I-Connect007 Editorial TeamSoldering is the heartbeat of assembly, and new developments are taking place to match the rest of the innovation in electronics. There are tried-and-true technologies for soldering. But new challenges in packaging, materials, and sustainability may be putting this key step in flux.
I-Connect007 Editor’s Choice: Five Must-Reads for the Week
11/29/2024 | Nolan Johnson, I-Connect007If you’re in the U.S. today, odds are you’re at home enjoying the aftermath of a Thanksgiving holiday meal. Let me just say that whether you had a Thanksgiving holiday surrounded by family, friends, or both, I hope it was joyous. If you know someone who doesn’t have friends or family with whom to share this time, please reach out and include them. Chronic loneliness can exact a measurable toll on our mental and physical health. Wherever you are on the globe this holiday season, I encourage you to reach out to someone who might be battling loneliness and connect. It will make a difference to them. Not only will it help get you in the mood for your winter holiday of choice, but it’ll be good for your mental health as well.
Koh Young Technology Showcasing Advanced Packaging Inspection Solutions at SEMICON Japan at Tokyo Big Sight
11/26/2024 | Koh Young TechnologyKoh Young Technology, the global leader in True 3D measurement-based inspection solutions, will demonstrate its award-winning inspection solutions in Hall 1 Booth 1310 at Tokyo Big Sight on December 12-13, 2024.