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Institutional investors are self-assured when it comes to navigating the next bout of market volatility, according to a new survey conducted by Wilshire Associates. Roughly 95% of the 75 institutional investors surveyed reported being at least somewhat confident in their organization’s readiness to successfully navigate market volatility. Among that group, 39% feel very confident and 56% are somewhat confident. Five percent reported that they do not feel very confident.
When asked to compare preparedness today for a bear market with how well prepared the organizations were in 2007, fewer than one-third of respondents (29%) feel “far more prepared.” More than half of institutions (58%) feel more prepared than in 2007 and the remainder (13%) reported feeling the same level of preparedness as 12 years ago.
“If history teaches us anything, it is that markets do not go up forever in a straight line, so it is reassuring that many institutions have been proactive in their preparation for this inevitability,” said Steve Foresti, Chief Investment Officer of Wilshire Consulting. “However, with roughly six-in-ten institutions feeling anything less than far more prepared for a bear market than in 2007, and the same number feeling only somewhat confident about weathering volatility, there’s opportunity for improvement.”
Predicting What’s Next
Institutions are a mixed bag when it comes to what type of investments will generate best market returns in the next 12 months. Investors will primarily look to equities, with 41% of respondents citing US or emerging market equities to bring about the greatest market return over the next year (21% and 20%, respectively). Fixed income was the next most highly-cited investment opportunity, with 29% of respondents choosing international and US fixed income as creating the greatest opportunity. One-fifth believe alternatives will generate best market returns and 10% will look to real estate.
Most institutions expect geopolitical events to be the most likely trigger for a sustained downturn. Two out of five investors identify the US-China trade situation as being the potential epicenter of the next market correction or downturn. A quarter of survey respondents expect US monetary policy to be the likely trigger and another 14% anticipate the 2020 US election could lead to a sustained downturn.
“While it is nearly impossible to predict what might trigger a sustained market correction, institutions can make sure their portfolios are well diversified to account for various risks and market scenarios,” added Foresti. “Since investor perceptions of preparedness for market turbulence can often differ from actual readiness, running portfolio stress tests can be a valuable technique to pre-experience an institution’s preparedness.”
