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Motorway traffic jams, airport car parking, walking for miles, queuing for security, delayed flights—oh, the joys of travelling. I was quickly reminded of my status as a foreigner while waiting patiently in line for a half-hour at passport control to enter the European Union at Amsterdam Schiphol, having flown all the way from London Luton in the United Kingdom, that great distance of 200 miles.
But it was worth all the hassle when I eventually joined the EIPC Summer Conference, June 4-5, in the Newton Room at ESA-ESTEC, the European Space Research and Technology Centre in Noordwijk, The Netherlands, the technical heart of the European space effort where most projects of the European Space Agency are born and guided through their various phases of development. EAS’s stated mission is to shape the development of Europe’s space capability and to ensure that investment in space continues to deliver benefits to the citizens of Europe and the world.
One hundred and seven registered delegates, representing 17 countries, were welcomed by EIPC president Alun Morgan, who, as we have come to expect, had done his homework and delivered some fascinating facts and figures in accord with the context of the ESA-ESTEC venue.
He remarked upon the dramatic growth in the number of man-made objects in space, from the sole Sputnik satellite in 1957 to the thousands currently launched annually, and that a Japanese university has secured a spot on an upcoming SpaceX rocket for their wooden LignoSat probe.
Morgan discussed the classification of orbits—low-Earth, medium-Earth and geo-stationary—by explaining what devices fitted where, and concluded with the story of how he had been able to track the International Space Station, download its amateur radio transmissions, and create a series of slow-scan television images commemorating various aspects of lunar exploration. His diligence had been acknowledged by an ARISS SSTV award certificate, which he proudly displayed.
ESA Materials Engineer Stan Heltzel added his welcome on behalf of ESTEC, and gave a brief introduction to the structure and objectives of the ESA organisation, some of its projects and missions, and summarised the resources and facilities within the extensive Noordwijk site.
An Economic Outlook
The traditional starting point for EIPC Conferences is Custer Consulting Group’s business outlook on the global electronics industry, with emphasis on Europe. Morgan delivered the current update on behalf of Jon Custer, and there was a note of sadness as tribute was paid to the memory of friend and business partner Michael Gasch, who had passed away very recently. For many years Michael had prepared statistics and analyses for various groups and associations connected with the European printed circuit board industry, and his contribution will be greatly missed.
So far, the 2024 global economy has faced a mix of opportunities, uncertainties, and challenges across various sectors and regions. Many governments offered stimulus packages and made infrastructure investments in efforts to promote sustainable growth as the world continues to recover from the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Supply chain disruptions persist, with issues such as semiconductor shortages, transportation bottlenecks and labour shortages continuing to affect manufacturing and retail sectors, leading to delayed deliveries and increased costs. Inflation continues to be a concern, with central banks adjusting monetary policies accordingly. Geopolitical tensions continue to influence economic outlooks.
Although trade disputes, sanctions, and territorial conflicts all pose risks to global stability, economic growth is driven by technological advancements and innovations in areas such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and renewable energy. Climate change and environmental sustainability are increasingly important considerations. The pandemic has accelerated the trend of digital transformation, with companies investing in digital infrastructure to support remote working, e-commerce, and digital services.
Stock markets have experienced volatility and uncertainty regarding economic recovery, inflation, and monetary policy decisions. Labour market conditions vary across regions. Some areas are experiencing labour shortages because of demographic trends, skills mismatches, and pandemic-related disruptions. Despite progress in vaccination efforts, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges to public health and healthcare systems in many parts of the world.
Locally, the European economy demonstrated resilience amid various challenges. Despite initial concerns, economic indicators show steady growth across key sectors. Increased consumer spending, supported by government stimulus measures, have played a pivotal role in driving recovery. Additionally, robust exports and advancements in technology have bolstered confidence in Europe's economic prospects. However, persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties posed ongoing risks. Overall, the European economy has navigated through the period with cautious optimism, emphasising adaptability and innovation as key drivers of resilience.
The global economic outlook is characterised by cautious optimism tempered by persistent challenges. Economic recovery continues, albeit at varying paces across regions, as countries navigate the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and adapt to shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Economic recovery is underway in many regions, buoyed by vaccination efforts, fiscal stimulus, and easing restrictions. Yet the pace varies, with disparities across sectors and countries.
Inflation persists due to disruptions in the supply chain, increasing commodity prices, and heightening consumer demand. Central banks have to find a balance between stimulating growth and curbing inflation.
Geopolitical tensions, such as trade disputes and regional conflicts, pose risks to global economic stability. These uncertainties could affect investor confidence and disrupt supply chains, impacting global trade and investment flows.
Technological advancements offer innovation and productivity gains through digitalisation, automation, and artificial intelligence. Yet concerns have arisen regarding potential job displacement, underscoring the importance of workforce re-skilling and up-skilling.
The emphasis on sustainability and addressing climate change is growing, with governments, businesses, and investors prioritising environmental concerns. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy presents challenges and opportunities for industries globally.
Although the central banks of some advanced economies might start normalising monetary policy, potentially through gradual reduction of asset purchases and interest rate hikes, the timing and pace of these adjustments will hinge on economic conditions and inflationary pressures.
Considering again the more local situation, the outlook for the European economy until the end of the year was cautiously optimistic, albeit with several challenges and uncertainties. The European economy is expected to continue its recovery path, supported by ongoing vaccination efforts and the easing of pandemic-related restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures. However, the pace of recovery might vary across countries and sectors.
Inflationary pressures are likely to persist, driven by supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and pent-up consumer demand. Central banks will closely monitor these developments and might adjust monetary policy accordingly. Geopolitical tensions, including trade disputes and regional conflicts, pose risks to European economic stability. Heightened uncertainties might impact investor confidence and disrupt supply chains, affecting trade and investment flows.
Continued advancements in technology present opportunities for innovation and productivity gains in the European economy. However, there might be concerns about job displacement, emphasising the need for workforce re-skilling and up-skilling. The focus on sustainability and addressing climate change is expected to intensify in Europe, with governments, businesses, and investors prioritising environmental considerations. Efforts to transition toward a low-carbon economy will present challenges and opportunities for industries in the region.
Custer considered that although the European economy is poised for further recovery, uncertainties surrounding inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the pace of technological advancements will require careful monitoring and adaptation by policymakers and businesses to sustain growth and resilience.
According to Custer’s sources, the European PCB industry has undergone notable trends and developments. Demand for PCBs remains relatively stable, driven by sectors such as telecommunications, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics. Despite global supply chain disruptions and semiconductor shortages affecting the electronics sector, the European PCB industry has demonstrated its resilience and adaptability in response to evolving market dynamics while mitigating supply chain challenges and meeting customer demands. Furthermore, advancements in technology, including the adoption of advanced materials and manufacturing techniques, have contributed to enhancing the performance and reliability of PCBs. However, Morgan noted the ongoing difficulties in attracting people to take up jobs in manufacturing and engineering.
Nevertheless, although the industry should have been positioning itself for continued growth and innovation, it faces significant challenges, including rising raw material costs, geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade uncertainties. Energy costs put the European industry at a particular disadvantage in comparison with its competitors in Asia and North America. It is an inescapable fact that the number of PCB manufacturers in Europe has declined from over 500 at the turn of the century to only 170 in 2023.
Morgan reminded the audience that the industry and its supply base have been steadily shrinking since the start of the millennium, although the European demand for PCBs and assemblies continued to grow, creating an ever-widening gap between European domestic capacity and consumption. More recently, it has become increasingly apparent that the geographical region of Europe is barely able to supply its critical PCB defence needs.
EIPC issued a letter of urgency, calling upon all European governments to recognise the existential threat to European PCB producers and to take urgent action to provide explicit assistance to reverse the trend and kick-start renewed investment in technology and capacity to meet current and future needs. Morgan implored members of the audience who represented companies and organisations to please sign and support the letter.
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