Weak Demand Outlook and Rising Inventory and Supply Pressure DRAM Prices Down for 2025
November 18, 2024 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 1 minute
The fourth quarter is a critical period for setting DRAM contract prices. TrendForce’s latest research reveals that prices for mature DRAM processes such as DDR4 and LPDDR4X are already trending downward due to ample supply and declining demand. The demand outlook for advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X remains uncertain, and with high inventory levels among certain buyers and sellers, a further drop in prices by the end of Q4 cannot be ruled out.
Avril Wu, TrendForce Senior Vice President of Research, explained that the company had a more optimistic outlook on DRAM prices in 2025, driven by aggressive HBM capacity expansion by the top three suppliers, with new facilities expected to commence full production by 2026.
However, rapid changes in market dynamics have led TrendForce to revise its forecast, shifting from an anticipated price increase to a projected decline, with the first half of 2025 expected to see a particularly pronounced drop. In this trend, DDR4 and LPDDR4X are likely to face more significant downward pressure than DDR5 and LPDDR5X.
On the supply side, the weakening NAND Flash market, which currently offers lower profitability than DRAM, is expected to prompt some production lines to switch from NAND to DRAM. Additionally, while HBM3e 12hi is anticipated to quickly become mainstream for AI applications in 2025, not all suppliers may secure NVIDIA certification on time, increasing the likelihood that TSV capacity could be redirected to conventional DRAM production.
Wu also highlighted that rapid capacity expansion by Chinese suppliers has positioned them as the largest source of DRAM production outside the top three global suppliers. Additionally, ongoing weakness in consumer electronics demand is expected to further impact DRAM pricing in 2025. If manufacturers are unable to effectively manage production levels, inventory clearance across the industry will likely slow down considerably.
Suggested Items
TRI at SMTA Wisconsin Expo 2025
04/24/2025 | TRITest Research, Inc. (TRI), the leading test and inspection systems provider for the electronics manufacturing industry, will join the SMTA Wisconsin Expo 2025.
Driving Sustainability in PCB Design
04/24/2025 | Marcy LaRont, I-Connect007Filbert (Fil) Arzola is an electrical engineer at Raytheon. He’s smart, entertaining, and passionate about PCB design. As it turns out, he’s also passionate about “Mother Earth,” as he calls her. Born and raised in Southern California, he freely admits that he turns the water off when he brushes his teeth and yells at his brother for throwing batteries in the garbage. But when looking at the issue of sustainability and PCB design, he urges his audiences to ponder what sustainability looks like. Can PCB designers, he asks, make any impact on sustainability at all?
Real Time with... IPC APEX EXPO: Silicon Geometry's Signal Integrity Impact on PCBs
04/24/2025 | Marcy LaRont, I-Connect007At IPC APEX EXPO 2025, Kris Moyer addressed the importance of understanding the impact of silicon geometry reduction on signal integrity and PCB performance. Kris says signal integrity considerations are necessary for so many designs today, regardless of clock frequency. He discusses valuable insights from attendees regarding embedded resistor technology and the effects of radiation on smaller silicon features in aerospace applications.
Recognizing the IPC Committee Volunteer Awards in 2025
04/24/2025 | Patty Goldman, I-Connect007In 2023, IPC created two new awards to honor standards development committee volunteers: The Hillman-Lambert Award for Volunteer of the Year and the Kessler-Goldman Award for Committee Leader of the Year. The awards were named after Hall of Fame members whose service to standards development is well-known and who have demonstrated the skills and principles that the awardees should also have.
Explore Thermal Management Solutions in Latest Podcast Series—New Episode Now Available
04/23/2025 | I-Connect007I-Connect007 is excited to share the latest episode in our new podcast series! In this episode, Ryan returns to discuss practical strategies for managing heat, starting early in the design planning and specification phases. After all, prevention means there’s less to mitigate later.