China’s Energy Subsidies Boost 3Q24 TV Shipments by Nearly 10%; Annual Shipments Return to Growth

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Global TV brand shipments reached 52.33 million units in 3Q24, reflecting a QoQ increase of 9.6% and a YoY growth of 0.5%. This surge was fueled by China’s end-of-July announcement of subsidies for first- and second-tier energy-efficient household appliances that offered 15%–20% discounts on retail prices through trade-in programs. Local TV brands ramped up production of models meeting subsidy requirements starting in August and helped aggressive promotions during the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week. As a result, Q3 shipments exceeded initial projections by 1%.

By directly reflecting subsidies in retail prices and setting a deadline of December 2024, Chinese brands and retailers effectively stimulated replacement demand. Sales during the promotional periods for Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week surged by over 20% YoY, bringing a much-needed boost to the sluggish TV market. TrendForce expects this momentum to carry into the year’s end, further aided by holiday promotional stocking in Europe and the U.S. Global TV demand is forecast to increase another 2.5% QoQ and 0.5% YoY in Q4, reaching 53.63 million units. Full-year 2024 shipments are projected at 196.7 million units—representing a 0.6% annual increase—and breaking a five-year streak of shipment declines.

TCL’s steady growth targets 28 million units for the year

In August, TCL ramped up preparations for holiday promotions in Europe and the U.S., increasing its average monthly export shipments to 2 million units. The company has benefited from China’s trade-in policies and saw its domestic shipments in September grow by 27%, driving its Q3 shipments to increase by 9.3% and reclaiming its position as the world’s second-largest TV brand and surpassing Hisense.

TrendForce anticipates TCL will continue its dual-brand strategy with its flagship TCL brand targeting mid- to high-end markets globally and in China, while its sub-brand FFALCON focuses on younger domestic consumers. This strategy is expected to help TCL achieve its 2024 goal of 28 million units shipped, representing a 12.3% annual growth.

Mini LED TV shipments poised for new heights

China’s subsidy program for home appliances has significantly boosted sales of large-size Mini LED TVs and driven total Mini LED TV brand shipments to 6.75 million units—marking a 65% YoY growth and surpassing earlier forecasts by 5.4%.

TrendForce notes that Samsung Electronics, which previously held over 50% market share in the Mini LED TV segment, remains the global leader in overall TV shipments. However, global inflation has shifted consumer demand toward other high-value products and limited the benefits Samsung derives from China’s Mini LED growth. In Q3, while Samsung retained the top spot in total shipments, its Mini LED TV shipments fell to 1.6 million units—a 6% YoY decline.

In contrast, Chinese brands such as TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi have capitalized on the momentum in 2024 by expanding their offerings beyond traditional high-end Mini LED TVs with thousand-zone local dimming to introduce affordable hundred-zone models. With the added boost from energy subsidies, these three brands collectively grew their Mini LED market share to 53%. Notably, Xiaomi, which only entered the Mini LED TV market in 2H23, achieved impressive results. By 2024, its shipments exceeded 1 million units, capturing a 16% market share and securing the position of the third-largest Mini LED TV supplier this year.