Trade Tensions and Tariffs: Who Bears the Cost in These Shifting Trade Patterns?

Estimated reading time: 1 minute

During his 2024 presidential campaign, President Donald Trump suggested imposing a universal tariff of at least 10% on all imports, as well as a 60% tariff on goods originating from China. More recently, he proposed implementing blanket tariffs of 25% on all products imported from Canada and Mexico and adding a further 10% tariff to all existing duties on Chinese imports.

These potential measures emerge against a backdrop of shifting trade patterns. In 2023, Mexico surpassed China as the United States’ top source of imported goods for the first time since the early 1990s, helping make Mexico the leading U.S. trading partner, followed by Canada and then China.

These key U.S. trading partnershave signaled the possibility of retaliatory measures in response to higher U.S. tariffs. Such signals underscore escalating trade tensions and reflect how economic tools are being used to address broader issues, including geopolitical rivalry, supply chain disruptions, and market competitiveness.

The specifics of any additional tariffs—when they would be implemented and which goods they would cover—remain uncertain. Their potential impact is also unclear. However, research on previous tariff increases suggests negative consequences not only for trade volumes but also for businesses.

Read the rest of this article in the Winter 2025 issue of IPC Community.