Punching Out: Preparing Your PCB/EMS Business for Sale
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TrendForce’s latest research shows that the MLCC market in 2Q26 is showing a clear split between robust AI-driven demand and soft consumer demand. The U.S.–Iran conflict has pushed up oil and natural gas prices, driving higher energy and transportation costs. Consumer price indexes (CPI) across major economies rose in March, with inflation expected to intensify and weigh on end-market demand and corporate capital spending.
These effects are gradually feeding through to the electronic components supply chain. Meanwhile, rising prices for key metals such as silver, aluminum, and copper have led to price increases of 10–15% on average for passive components, including ferrite beads, inductors, and resistors, effective April 1st.
Short-term demand supported by OEM pull-in orders
Tight supply of key components, including memory, CPUs, and HDD/SSDs—combined with rising upstream material and passive component costs—has prompted OEMs such as Dell and HP to adopt strategic inventory-building measures. Some low- to mid-tier notebook orders originally scheduled for 3Q have been pulled forward into 2Q production and shipment. This strategy aims to lock in relatively lower pricing expectations, stimulate demand, and boost revenue.
This wave of pull-in demand has already been reflected in March shipment and revenue performance of ODMs such as Quanta, Wistron, and Compal. However, since OEMs have not revised their full-year shipment forecasts upward, risks are building for a weaker-than-usual peak season in 2H26, along with potential order corrections. Demand allocations between 1H and 2H are now likely to shift toward 55:45.
Diverging supply-demand dynamics support upward pricing momentum
The capacity utilization rates of MLCC suppliers have continued to rise from February through April 2026. Strong demand from AI servers has prompted Japanese and Korean manufacturers to reallocate capacity from consumer-grade products to high-end MLCCs. The industry book-to-bill (BB) ratio improved from 0.89 in March to 0.92 in April, while leading suppliers such as Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Taiyo Yuden have maintained BB ratios consistently above 1.
Taiyo Yuden has already raised prices for low- to mid-capacitance consumer MLCCs and select automotive products by approximately 6–13% for distributors in China. Meanwhile, YAGEO and Walsin Technology Corporation (WTC) are negotiating price adjustments on a case-by-case basis for certain loss-making products, without announcing broad price hikes. Industry leaders Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have yet to make formal announcements, but overall pricing sentiment is shifting from cautious observation to tentative upward adjustments.
Looking ahead, TrendForce expects that as CSP-driven ASIC projects ramp up from late 3Q26, tightening supply of high-end MLCCs and ongoing capacity allocation toward higher-value products will support a transition from price stability to moderate price increases in 2H26.
However, inventory corrections following early pull-in demand for PCs and notebooks, along with geopolitical uncertainties and shifts in monetary policy, will remain key downside risks for consumer MLCC demand and pricing performance.
