200mm Wafer Demand to Grow Over 5% in 2016

As we close the books on 2015 and look out to 2016, the scenario includes a weak semiconductor revenue growth rate, but continued increased unit shipments, which means continued growth in wafer demand. However, the wafer demand growth includes some dynamic changes in the detailed breakout by technology and wafer size. 
 
The newly-released Semico Wafer Demand Model reports that total wafer demand in 2015 grew 4.8% driven by unit growth at both ends of the technology spectrum. While the most advanced foundries were introducing 14/16nm FinFET products, More than Moore devices continued to demand additional 200mm wafers. 300mm wafer demand grew at 6.8% in 2015, while 200mm wafer demand grew 4.4%. 
 
"In 2015, the foundries rolled out their first generation 14nm/16nm FinFET processes which suffered from the normal ramp challenges," said Joanne Itow, Managing Director Manufacturing for Semico.  "However, as process improvements are integrated into the fab floor, productivity and yields are going to increase throughout 2016."
 
The Semico Wafer Demand Model incorporates a lower yield rate initially during the ramp of new technologies such as 14/16nm FinFET, which temporarily pushed up wafer demand for the most advanced application processors in 2015. On the other side of the technology spectrum, mature processes for analog products such as RF and power management continue to be in high demand.   
 
In 2016, analog wafer demand is expected to increase 10%, while sensor and discrete wafer demand is expected to grow by over 8%.  New products in the Internet of Things category, such as wearables and home automation, will help boost sensor unit sales.  Growth in the automotive sector as well as in industrial applications, including agriculture, is expected to continue as the semiconductor usage for these applications increases. In 2016, 300mm wafers will continue on a growth path registering over 8% growth while 200mm wafer demand will grow at over 5%.  
 
Semico Research's recent report, Wafer Demand: Q4 2015 Data and Highlights, provides wafer demand data with an accompanying summary write-up of the forecast highlights and major changes. The database provides a five-year forecast of wafer demand by technology for the overall market as well as for major product categories, including:

• DRAM  
• NAND
• NOR
• SRAM
• Other Non-Volatile
• Microprocessors (MPU)
• Microcontrollers (MCU)
• DSP
• Communication MOS Logic
• Computing MOS Logic
• Programmable Logic/Standard Cell/Gate Array
• Analog
• Discrete
• Optoelectronics

The data output from the Semico Wafer Demand Model has been converted from a 200mm wafer equivalent to a 300mm wafer equivalent.  The first report to transition to a 300mm base was released in September 2015.     

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Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company located in Phoenix, Arizona.
Semico was founded in 1994 by a group of semiconductor industry experts. We have improved the validity of semiconductor product forecasts via technology roadmaps in end-use markets.

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