Total Memory Market Forecast to Increase 10% in 2017
December 22, 2016 | IC InsightsEstimated reading time: 1 minute
IC Insights will release its 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report in January of next year. The following represents a portion of the memory forecast that will appear in the new report.
After increasing by more than 20% in both 2013 and 2014, the memory market fell upon difficult times in 2015. Conditions that would normally be seen as favorable for boosting demand and increasing prices for memory devices such as supplier consolidation, limited capacity expansion, and a growing list of emerging applications did not prop up the market at all in 2015. Instead, slow system demand in personal computers led to excess inventory and steep price cuts in the second half of 2015. This resulted in a 3% decline to $78.0 billion for the 2015 memory market. These same weak market conditions carried into the first half of 2016, but then memory prices began to firm in the second half of the year and the market finished the year on a strong note, though still down 1% year over year.
Looking to 2017, IC Insights’ forecast the total memory IC market will increase 10% to a new record high of $85.3 billion as gains in average selling prices for DRAM and NAND flash help boost total memory sales. Increases in the memory market are forecast to continue each year through the forecast, with sales topping $100.0 billion for the first time in 2020 and then reaching nearly $110.0 billion in 2021 (Figure 1).
From 2016-2021, the average annual growth rate for the memory market is forecast to be 7.3%; about 2.4 points more than the total IC market CAGR during this same time. Memory units are expected to grow by a CAGR of 5.6%. Playing a bigger role in memory market growth through 2021 will be strengthening average selling prices (ASPs). Memory market ASPs fell 3% in 2015 and declined another 10% in 2016 but are expected to increase in all but one year (2020) through the forecast at an average annual rate of 1.8%.
Figure 1
The DRAM market, which was the catalyst for strong total memory market growth in 2013 and 2014, tumbled 3% in 2015 and another 10% in 2016, dragging the total memory market down with it in both years (Figure 1). For 2017, IC Insights forecasts a strong increase in DRAM average selling prices, which is expected to lift the DRAM market to 11% growth. The NAND flash memory market—the only memory segment to show an increase in 2016—is expected to grow 10% in 2017. Together, DRAM and NAND flash are forecast to help propel the total memory IC market up 10% in 2017.
Suggested Items
IDC Forecasts Slower Growth for Global Telecommunications Services Market: Could AI Help Telcos to Maintain Healthy Margins?
05/08/2024 | IDCWorldwide spending on Telecom Services and Pay TV Services reached $1,509 billion in 2023, an increase of 2.1% over 2022, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Semiannual Telecom Services Tracker.
Simbe Partners with Plexus to Scale Manufacturing and Meet Global Retail Demand
05/08/2024 | Globe NewswireSimbe, the leading provider of Store Intelligence™ solutions that increase retailer performance through unprecedented visibility and insights, today announced a partnership with Plexus Corp. to bring its best-in-class retail robotics-as-a-service to market quickly and at global scale.
IDTechEx Discusses Low-Loss Materials: The Enabler of Future Connected Vehicles?
05/06/2024 | IDTechExFuture connected vehicles will offer future drivers a safer, smoother, and more convenient driving experience. Not only will drivers get access to more navigation and entertainment options, but they will also gain access to safety technologies that will potentially reduce accidents, improve congestion, and reduce emissions globally by allowing vehicle safety systems to communicate with each other and with city traffic infrastructure.
HBM Prices to Increase by 5–10% in 2025, Accounting for Over 30% of Total DRAM Value
05/06/2024 | TrendForceAvril Wu, TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, reports that the HBM market is poised for robust growth, driven by significant pricing premiums and increased capacity needs for AI chips.
Tablet Shipments Show Signs of Recovery in Q1 2024
05/06/2024 | IDCAfter more than two years of decline, worldwide tablet shipments posted modest year-over-year growth of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24), totaling 30.8 million units, according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker.