Weak Demand Outlook and Rising Inventory and Supply Pressure DRAM Prices Down for 2025
November 18, 2024 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 1 minute
The fourth quarter is a critical period for setting DRAM contract prices. TrendForce’s latest research reveals that prices for mature DRAM processes such as DDR4 and LPDDR4X are already trending downward due to ample supply and declining demand. The demand outlook for advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X remains uncertain, and with high inventory levels among certain buyers and sellers, a further drop in prices by the end of Q4 cannot be ruled out.
Avril Wu, TrendForce Senior Vice President of Research, explained that the company had a more optimistic outlook on DRAM prices in 2025, driven by aggressive HBM capacity expansion by the top three suppliers, with new facilities expected to commence full production by 2026.
However, rapid changes in market dynamics have led TrendForce to revise its forecast, shifting from an anticipated price increase to a projected decline, with the first half of 2025 expected to see a particularly pronounced drop. In this trend, DDR4 and LPDDR4X are likely to face more significant downward pressure than DDR5 and LPDDR5X.
On the supply side, the weakening NAND Flash market, which currently offers lower profitability than DRAM, is expected to prompt some production lines to switch from NAND to DRAM. Additionally, while HBM3e 12hi is anticipated to quickly become mainstream for AI applications in 2025, not all suppliers may secure NVIDIA certification on time, increasing the likelihood that TSV capacity could be redirected to conventional DRAM production.
Wu also highlighted that rapid capacity expansion by Chinese suppliers has positioned them as the largest source of DRAM production outside the top three global suppliers. Additionally, ongoing weakness in consumer electronics demand is expected to further impact DRAM pricing in 2025. If manufacturers are unable to effectively manage production levels, inventory clearance across the industry will likely slow down considerably.
Suggested Items
Zenaida Valianu, IPC, Earns IPC Excellence in Education Award at IPC APEX EXPO 2025
03/31/2025 | IPCThe IPC Excellence in Education award was presented to Zenaida (Zenny) Valianu, IPC, at IPC APEX EXPO 2025, recognizing her significant contributions to workforce development and leadership.
IPC APEX EXPO 2025 Review: Expecting the Unexpected
03/31/2025 | Tom Kastner, GP VenturesOne of the best things about trade shows is not the scheduled meetings but the chance meetings that come up unexpectedly. Just because you happened to go down one aisle instead of the next, you bump into an old acquaintance that you have not seen for years, or you happen to talk to the guy in line next to you to get a $5 Pepsi, and it turns into a great, new connection.
Gartner Forecasts Worldwide GenAI Spending to Reach $644 Billion in 2025
03/31/2025 | Gartner, Inc.Worldwide generative AI (GenAI) spending is expected to total $644 billion in 2025, an increase of 76.4% from 2024, according to a forecast by Gartner, Inc.
L3Harris Completes Sale of Commercial Aviation Solutions Business to TJC for $800 Million
03/31/2025 | BUSINESS WIREL3Harris Technologies has completed the previously announced sale of its Commercial Aviation Solutions (CAS) business to an affiliate of TJC L.P. for $800 million. The entire $800 million cash purchase price was paid to L3Harris at the closing of the transaction.
Plexus Marks Zero Waste Day with Significant Reductions in Electronic Waste
03/28/2025 | PlexusThe global surge in electronic waste, increasing by 82% since 2010 and projected to reach a staggering 82 million tons by 2030, demands immediate and effective action. In response, Plexus Corp., is demonstrating its commitment to sustainability by achieving significant waste reduction milestones at its European facilities.