PCs and Tablets Expected to Grow in 2024, But AI Isn’t the Main Driver -Yet

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The global market for personal computing devices, including PCs and tablets, is set to grow 3.8% in 2024, reaching 403.5 million units, according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. While PCs have dominated the discussion, driven primarily by the AI PC marketing combined with the approaching end of support for Windows 10, tablets are leading the charge with nearly double-digit growth projected for the year.

Worldwide tablet shipments are expected to grow 9.8% this year, outpacing the 0.8% growth in PCs. However, 2025 is expected to be a year of recovery for PCs, with growth anticipated at 4.3%, driven by commercial upgrades from Windows 10 to Windows 11.

The buzz around Artificial Intelligence (AI) has dominated tech news in the last couple years, most recently focused around on-device AI capabilities. However, many corporate budgets are constrained due to the overall macro environment, and companies are continuing to evaluate the need for AI PCs/Tablets, which often come at a higher cost.

“There seems to be a big disconnect between supply and demand as PC and platform makers are gearing up for AI PCs and tablets to be the next big thing, but the lack of clear use cases and a bump in average selling prices has buyers questioning the utility.” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “It’s now up to Microsoft, Apple, and Google to prove the need for locally processed AI to avoid a backlash from hardware makers and end users.”

Beyond AI, in the near term the PC and Tablet markets have some tailwinds, most notably the end of support for Windows 10. This, combined with improvements in the global economy, are helping shine light on the PC and tablet outlook. As a result, the commercial segment is expected to be a bright spot within the personal computing device categories with forecast growth of 5.1% in 2025.

“Commercial Windows PC replacements have been particularly pronounced in Japan recently and will continue there in the upcoming quarters,” says Bryan Ma, VP of Devices Research at IDC. “Another notable bright spot is the rise of tablets from Chinese phone vendors, which has found a sweet spot of quality products below US$300 and should continue to propel the markets in both China and many parts of Asia.”