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Analysis: Electronics Industry in the Recession
March 29, 2010 |Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
— Henderson Ventures published its Forecast Summary, covering the movement of electronics inventory and end markets during the recession. It also focuses on automotive electronics and electronic equipment. Electronics.ca Publications released a yearbook research product on the world electronics industry, with volume one focused on Western Europe.
Recession, and Gradual Recovery
The recession has prompted much soul searching in the manufacturing sector, according to Henderson Ventures. Increases in excess capacity have resulted in substantial plant closures as regional end markets continue to shift to emerging Asia. For example, Japanese manufacturers suffered a 20 percent drop in domestic production during 2009. They have responded by closing a wide range of facilities, including automotive, chemical, and electronics industry facilities. Hitachi closed a domestic plasma display facility and Sony will close a 2.8 million square foot TV plant in the Pittsburg area (New Stanton) this October.
Charts show Henderson's predictions by region.
Dreadful results in the automotive vehicle sector during 2009 will give way to a gradual recovery in the advanced economies. China, which experienced strong growth in both sales and production last year, will continue to prosper. Vehicle sales are expected to exceed 15 million units this year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce estimates that parts production will approximate $200 billion this year. Electronics manufacturers will be increasingly challenged to meet energy efficiency and pollution-reduction targets.
After a depressing 9.9% dive in 2009, world production of electronic equipment will grow by 7.5% this year, with the not-insignificant help of inventory replenishments that could account for 2-3 percentage points of 2010 gains. However, the 9.3% expansion predicted for 2011 will be based on solid fundamentals. But growth rates will roll off in 2012 as another industry cycle winds down. Still, a solid 7.3% advance is predicted for that year. The major Asian producers will continue to outstrip the gains to be posted by the advanced economies, as shown in the charts.
The Henderson Forecast Summary is produced by Henderson Ventures, publishers of the Henderson Electronic Market Forecast newsletter, http://www.hendersonventures.com
Yearbook of World Electronics Data Volume 1: West Europe
The downturn in the electronics industry started in the final months of 2008 and continued in the first half of 2009. It has since shown signs of stabilizing with the prospects of a recovery in 2010. The industry should gain momentum during the year, although there are still significant downside risks. As we enter the next growth cycle, the Western European electronics industry will have virtually completed the transformation from high-volume to shorter-run production, well positioned for a period of sustained growth, according to Electronics.ca’s report. Emphasis will be on areas where Europe has strong global position such as industrial, medical, high-end communications, and automotive electronics. To take advantage of these opportunities will require a clear understanding of the current structure of the West European electronics industry, how it has developed on a country and regional level and how it fits globally.
Volume 1 of the Yearbook of World Electronics Data tracks the electronics industry in 16 countries in Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom including subsets for computing, communications, consumer, industrial and components markets and production. It covers the 12 major product groups, market and production forecasts, and other segments. A CD option allows users to manipulate the data quickly and easily: produce custom subsets or summaries of the data, create your own forecasts or cut and paste the data into in-house reports and presentations.
The Yearbook provides research for distributors and manufacturers of electronic components and materials, suppliers of electronic production equipment, OEMs, EMS providers, government (including investment organizations), financial and industry analysts, and academic institutes and universities tracking developments in the electronics industry.
It highlights market trends and opportunities and offer corroborative evidence for individual research. Each new edition is fully revised and updated. Trade statistics are analyzed in detail, with over 500 categories. Production statistics are collected from government and manufacturer’s asssociation sources where these are available. Extensive use is also made of research reports, company reports, news items and work by other consultants to supplement and cross-check the official and semi-official sources.
Markets are forecast in real terms for the next five years, with production forecast for the next two years, using constant exchange rates and excluding inflation. These are based on our extensive knowledge of the historical performance of each product, the general economic outlook and the major growth influencing factors.
Get the report at http://www.electronics.ca/publications/products/Yearbook-of-World-Electronics-Data.-Volume-1%3A-West-Europe.html
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