Flexible Thinking: Rules of Thumb: A Word to the Wise
Happy’s Tech Talk #29: Bend-to-Install Semi-flex FR-4
Connect the Dots: Five Best Practices for Designing Flex and Rigid-flex PCBs
Walt Custer’s Market Report
June 12, 2017 | Barry Matties, I-Connect007Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
At the recent EIPC Conference, Walt Custer delivered his annual report detailing the trends he’s been seeing in the electronics industry for 2016 and into the first quarter of 2017. Barry Matties sat down with Walt to discuss his findings, including his forecast for the upcoming year. Also discussed are Walt’s prognosis for the market segments with the most promise and those that cause him concern.
Barry Matties: Walt, you’ve just wrapped up your report. Please give our readers an overview.
Walt Custer: The year 2016 finished up quite well, and the first quarter of 2017 was strong worldwide. Almost all the sectors were up and almost all the geographies were up. The leading indicators were positive. Europe did especially well. Worldwide, I think electronic equipment sales were up about 2.8%. Now, it doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s been four successive quarters of growth when we had contraction for a while, and Europe was up about 5% the first quarter and all its sectors grew.
Now, we are seeing some signs of slowing, or at least slower growth, but not contraction worldwide. Looking at the leading indicators out of Asia China contracted again. It dropped down below 50 for PMI. Korea has been contracting, Taiwan is still up, and Japan still up, so I think we’ve had some good times, but the rate of growth has peaked in parts of Asia.
Matties: Is that what you expected in China?
Custer: Well, I think they’re having their problems, you know, financial problems and the like so, no, I wasn’t expecting it. I don’t think the people who released the data were expecting it, but the data is what the data is and we’ll watch it. All I’m saying is I’m a little cautionary that we have had some decent growth, which felt really good, but now we’re also seeing slowing.
By end-market, semiconductor fab equipment is doing incredibly well, but that’s true of capital equipment in general during the upturns in a business cycle. In good times capital spending grows like gangbusters and in bad times it contracts. The automotive industry is up, medical electronics is up, and the instrument control sector is doing better. Even cellphone sales picked up, so there were a lot of sectors that had a good first-quarter growth.
My biggest concern is the global economy, which is fragile because of political situations. North Korea could quickly get out of hand and the Middle East is always a worry, so things could turn very quickly if some crazy person decides to push a button.
Matties: There are a lot of crazy people in the world right now.
Custer: Yeah, there are a lot of crazy people in the world. But I would say it was a very encouraging first quarter. Semiconductor sales are through the roof, but I think that will be unsustained because they are substantially outgrowing electronic equipment.
In 1Q17 electronic equipment sales grew 2.8% while semiconductors grew 18%. Sure, there’s increased semiconductor content, but not enough to make up for that first quarter growth difference. That implies that people are over-ordering and/or building chip inventories. Once people realize they have enough stock, then they will all of a sudden turn off the spigot.
In the first quarter, semiconductor capital equipment was up over 40% and that’s a bubble—mirroring semiconductors being up by 18%.
Matties: PCBs were down for a bit, weren’t they?
Custer: Well, PCBs are just not growing as fast as the other sectors. I think in the first quarter I calculated PCBs were up about 1.2% or 1.5%, but that’s compared to semiconductors, which are up 18%. People aren’t stockpiling PCBs, and the good news is that PCBs won’t crash dramatically in a slowdown, but then the bad news is that PCBs are just not growing as much as the other electronic sectors. Whether some of the slower growth is price-related or demand-related, I don't know, but PCB sales are not growing that much. We recently saw a growth in laminate, but I think some of that was panic-buying because of worries with copper foil and glass shortages.
Page 1 of 2
Share on:
Suggested Items
Unlocking Advanced Circuitry Through Liquid Metal Ink
10/31/2024 | I-Connect007 Editorial TeamPCB UHDI technologist John Johnson of American Standard Circuits discusses the evolving landscape of electronics manufacturing and the critical role of innovation, specifically liquid metal ink technology, as an alternate process to traditional metallization in PCB fabrication to achieve ever finer features and tighter tolerances. The discussion highlights the benefits of reliability, efficiency, and yields as a tradeoff to any increased cost to run the process. As this technology becomes better understood and accepted, even sought out by customers and designers, John says there is a move toward mainstream incorporation.
Fresh PCB Concepts: The Critical Nature of Copper Thickness on PCBs
10/31/2024 | Team NCAB -- Column: Fresh PCB ConceptsPCBs are the backbone of modern electronics and the copper layers within these boards serve as the primary pathways for electrical signals. When designing and manufacturing PCBs, copper thickness is one of the most critical factors and significantly affects the board’s performance and durability. The IPC-6012F specification, the industry standard for the performance and qualification of rigid PCBs, sets clear guidelines on copper thickness to ensure reliability in different environments and applications.
Book Excerpt: The Printed Circuit Designer’s Guide to... DFM Essentials, Ch. 1
10/25/2024 | I-Connect007The guidelines offered in this book are based on both ASC recommendations and IPC standards with the understanding that some may require adjustment based on the material set, fabricator processes, and other design constraints. This chapter details high-frequency materials, copper foil types, metal core PCBs, and the benefits of embedded capacitance and resistor materials in multilayer PCBs.
The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Direct Metallization
10/21/2024 | Carmichael Gugliotti, MacDermid AlphaCarmichael Gugliotti of MacDermid Alpha discusses the innovative realm of direct metallization technology, its numerous applications, and significant advantages over traditional processes. Carmichael offers an in-depth look at how direct metallization, through developments such as Blackhole and Shadow, is revolutionizing PCB manufacturing by enhancing efficiency, sustainability, and cost-effectiveness. From its origins in the 1980s to its application in cutting-edge, high-density interconnects and its pivotal role in sustainability, this discussion sheds light on how direct metallization shapes the future of PCB manufacturing across various industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and beyond.
Connect the Dots: Designing for Reality—Pattern Plating
10/16/2024 | Matt Stevenson -- Column: Connect the DotsIn the previous episode of I-Connect007’s On the Line with… podcast, we painted the picture of the outer layer imaging process. Now we are ready for pattern plating, where fabrication can get tricky. The board is now ready to receive the copper traces, pads, and other elements specified in the original CAD design. This article will lay out the pattern plating process and discuss constraints in the chemistries that must be properly managed to meet the customer's exacting manufacturing tolerances.