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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.1% in October to 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6% increase in September, and a 0.5% increase in August.
“The US LEI increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near term economic growth should remain strong, longer term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5% by mid to late 2019.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in October to 104.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in September, and a 0.3% increase in August.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4% in October to 105.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% decline in September and a 0.3% increase in August.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
