The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. Increased Slightly in November

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Next month’s release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.2% in November to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3% decline in October, and a 0.6% increase in September.

“The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8% should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in November to 104.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in October, and a 0.2% increase in September. 

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4% in November to 106.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in October and a 0.2% decline in September.