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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in January (according to preliminary estimates) to 111.3 (2016 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.1% increase in November.
“Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components. The US LEI has now been flat essentially since October 2018. The Conference Board forecasts that US GDP growth will likely decelerate to about 2% by the end of 2019.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1% in January to 105.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in December, and a 0.2% increase in November.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in January to 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3% increase in December and a 0.5% increase in November.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
