IDC FutureScape: Top 10 Predictions for the Future of Digital Innovation

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The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how digital technology and innovation can deliver resiliency, revenue, and opportunity to the enterprise in the face of crisis. Now, as we face additional global challenges, such as war, inflation, the threat of recession, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, enterprise relationships with technology will be more critical than ever. International Data Corporation (IDC) anticipates the emergence of a divide between organizations that are able to scale development and delivery of digital innovation and those that cannot. Enterprises that deliver digital innovation will emerge as leaders in their market sectors.

As enterprises execute their transitions from digital transformation technology investment strategies to focusing on running digital businesses, a critical enabler will be the ability to innovate by developing differentiated and disruptive technologies. Data and data analytics will play increasingly important roles. In IDC's view, companies that acquire the right data sets and apply the right analytics to derive key insights and build desirable capabilities will achieve desired business outcomes.

IDC's research supports this view. The rate of innovation in organizations with excellent enterprise intelligence was on average 2.5x faster than organizations with poor enterprise intelligence, according to IDC's August 2021 Future of Intelligence Survey. Getting the data and analytics equation right, however, will require partnerships, rigor, efficiency, and ethics – all areas that are addressed in IDC's Future of Digital Innovation predictions.

"If the pandemic didn't force an organization to pivot toward digital innovation, the multitude of current headwinds ranging from inflation to war should," said Nancy Gohring, research director, Future of Digital Innovation at IDC. "Winners and losers in each sector will be determined by their ability to deliver digital innovation at scale — ethically, sustainably, and repeatedly."

IDC's top 10 predictions for the Future of Connectedness 2022 are:

Prediction 1: By 2024, the top 5 companies in each sector will be those that used technology to innovate their way out of a global crisis such as recession or supply chain disruption.

Prediction 2: By 2026, 10% of companies will successfully incentivize consumers to share closely held data to devise nontraditional offerings, improve customer experience, and grow market share.

Prediction 3: By 2024, 35% of businesses that build innovative algorithms to glean intelligence from unique data sets will deliver successful new product offerings and pricing models and tap new customer segments.

Prediction 4: By 2028, new efficiencies will allow developers to increase the share of time they spend on innovation from 25% of their development-related work to 75%.

Prediction 5: By 2028, recurring revenue from smart products will make up 65% of revenue for companies that sell "dumb" and "smart" versions of the same products.

Prediction 6: By 2026, 75% of market leaders will have systemic, structured digital innovation programs and investments that support ongoing iterative innovation, enabling growth, scale, agility, and resilience.

Prediction 7: By 2026, companies that share data with business partners to leverage their collective data sets for new revenue potential will grow revenue 10% faster than those that don't.

Prediction 8: 85% of CEOs of the G2000 will demand senior leaders deliver data-driven insight into innovation activity including developer efficiency and business outcomes by 2025.

Prediction 9: In 2027, the share of non-technology-focused people in companies who will spend 10 hours or more a week contributing to digital innovation will grow from 5% today to 45%.

Prediction 10: In 2028, 15 large companies will make headlines for using digital technologies to manipulate customer experiences to spur upgrades and replacements.