Early Shipments by TV Brands Push Global 1H25 Volume Up 2%, But Raise Concerns for Second-Half Peak Season

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TrendForce’s latest research shows that global TV shipments reached 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, a 2% YoY increase, driven by tariff-related uncertainties and China’s “trade-in” subsidy program. However, with most brands front-loading shipments, there are growing concerns that the traditional second-half peak season may fall short of expectations.

TrendForce identifies three main factors suppressing second-half momentum:

1. Persistently high panel costs are limiting brands’ ability to run large-scale seasonal promotions.

2. Anticipation of tariff adjustments has prompted consumers to purchase early, particularly in the U.S., where TV sales rose 2–3% YoY in 1H25—effectively borrowing demand from the second half.

3. Over 60% of China’s subsidy budget has already been used as of midyear, raising the likelihood of reduced subsidies later in the year and dampening domestic demand.

As a result, TrendForce has revised its 2025 global TV shipment forecast downward to 195.71 million units, marking a 1.1% annual decline.

Vizio, TCL, and Hisense outperform as Korean brands lose ground

In the first half of 2025, the top five global TV brands were Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively accounting for 65.6% of the market. TCL and Hisense outperformed the market with YoY shipment growth of 12.5% and 7.3%, respectively, benefiting from extended Chinese subsidies and tariff-related uncertainties in the U.S.

Vizio, following Walmart’s acquisition announcement and its expected rebranding as a private-label product by end-2025, saw 13% growth in H1 shipments, the highest among all brands. Vizio products are now prioritized at Walmart and Sam’s Club, and full-year shipments are expected to grow over 30%.

Mini LED gaining traction as Chinese brands expand share

TrendForce notes that China’s trade-in and energy-saving incentives have significantly boosted promotions of Mini LED TVs by TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi. Global Mini LED TV shipments are projected to grow 67% YoY to 12.9 million units, with the combined market share of these three brands rising to 62%. Mini LED TVs are expected to reach a 6.6% market penetration globally.

OLED TVs are forecast to account for 3.4% of total TV shipments in 2025. With Samsung raising its OLED TV shipment target to 2 million units, global OLED TV shipments are expected to grow 5.6% YoY to 6.68 million units, with Korean brands commanding nearly 80% of the market.

Meanwhile, high refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are seeing increasing demand from mid- to high-end segments. Shipments are projected to grow 24.4% YoY, with total market penetration expected to reach 13.6%, driven by policy incentives and brand upgrades.

While overall TV market growth is slowing, technology-driven structural upgrades are becoming the core of brand competitiveness. Major players are accelerating differentiation through Mini LED, OLED, and high refresh rate offerings, while also deepening regional strategies to align with local market needs.