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TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that branded TV shipments in 1H24 reached 90.717 million units globally, representing a YoY increase of 0.8%. Demand varied across regions as China experienced weaker-than-expected TV sales due to a sluggish real estate market and changing viewing habits among younger consumers. In North America, persistently low-priced competition helped sustain demand, while in Europe, a combination of sporting events and a low base from the previous two years due to inflation contributed to better-than-expected TV shipments in the first half of the year.
The traditional peak season for TV demand arrives in the second half of the year meaning shipment growth is expected to continue but at a slower pace. Additionally, with panel prices rising throughout the first half of the year and consumers still favoring affordable TVs, brands have been unable to fully pass on costs, leading them to scale back promotional activities. Instead, they are focusing on developing larger, mid-to-high-end products to reduce losses. This shift is expected to increase average TV sizes by 1.4 inches to 55.5 inches in 2024. However, TrendForce forecasts that overall TV shipments for the year will decline by 0.2% for a total of 195.09 million units.
In the first half of 2024, the top five TV brands were Samsung Electronics, Hisense, TCL, LG Electronics, and Xiaomi. TCL ranked third as it trailed Hisense by a narrow margin; but with strong market coverage in key retail channels across Europe and emerging regions, TCL’s Q2 shipments surpassed Hisense to reach 6.68 million units, with both quarterly and annual growth exceeding 10%. TrendForce indicates that TCL—supported by its Group’s panels and highly automated production processes—is well-positioned to challenge for second place in overall shipments for 2024.
Mini LED TVs exceed expectations, driving 55% growth in shipments this year
In recent years, global inflation and rising interest rates have led consumers to be more budget-conscious, driving the rise of affordable TVs. In the US market, deep discounts that were once only seen during Black Friday, such as US$99 for a 32-inch HD TV or $399 for a 65-inch UHD TV, have become more common due to the push from private-label brands. The regular price for a 65-inch UHD TV even dropped to $299, forcing other brands to follow suit to maintain market share.
TrendForce notes that in the first half of 2024, TV brands faced not only rising panel prices but also increased shipping costs that pushed them to the brink of losses. Companies continued to scale up product sizes to improve their financial position. Chinese brands like TCL, Xiaomi, and Hisense further stimulated consumer demand by reducing the number of Mini LED zones, allowing them to offer more competitively priced products.
This strategy successfully boosted demand, with overall Mini LED TV shipments expected to increase by 55% YoY to reach 6.35 million units. For the first time, the combined market share of these three Chinese brands is projected to surpass 50% and overtake Samsung. Although Samsung still leads the market with a 25% market share, this represents a 17 percentage point drop from the previous year. If Samsung fails to launch a killer product in 2025, its Mini LED TV market share could be overtaken by TCL.
OLED TV Shipments Rebound to 6 Million Units
Brands have adjusted their promotional strategies for 2024 after a 20% decline in OLED TV shipments in 2023. LG Electronics responded to Samsung’s entrance into the white OLED TV market by increasing its promotional discounts to 25–33% during the peak season, boosting sales and driving overall OLED TV shipments up 15.9% YoY to 6.23 million units. LG and Samsung, the two leading South Korean brands, captured 53.3% and 22.5% of the market, respectively. TrendForce observes that if OLED TV costs cannot be effectively optimized by 2025, and if the technology fails to attract more major brands, shipments may stagnate between 6 and 6.5 million units.
