ODMs Slow Stocking; 4Q24 MLCC Shipments Expected to Decline by 3.6%

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TrendForce’s latest findings show that recent economic data points to a steady cooling of inflation in the US market, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September to prevent a potential economic slowdown or recession. Additionally, the complex geopolitical landscape and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election could dampen consumer spending, posing a significant risk to year-end holiday demand. Consequently, TrendForce forecasts that total shipments of MLCCs will reach approximately 1.205 trillion units in 4Q24—representing a quarterly decline of 3.6%.

Smartphones and notebooks see conservative demand, but AI server growth remains robust, benefiting Japanese and Korean suppliers

TrendForce notes that order forecasts for Q4 notebooks from ODMs have decreased by an average of 5% to 8%. ODMs have taken a cautious approach to component stocking since mid-September due to conservative planning by OEMs for orders related to smartphones, notebooks, networking equipment, and tablets. Their stocking attitudes remain reserved even in light of the Chinese National Day holiday and the upcoming holiday shopping season in Europe and the US.

While there has been a slight increase in demand for business notebooks and Huawei’s new foldable smartphone, Apple’s recently launched AI-enabled iPhone 16 has yet to generate a significant replacement cycle. The newly introduced Apple Intelligence still requires time to mature in its applications.

In contrast, demand for AI servers continues to gain momentum. Although NVIDIA’s Blackwell GPUs have faced production delays until mid-Q4 due to adjustments to mask-design, orders for Hopper-based H100/H200 GPUs have increased by 65%, and demand for the scaled-down H20 GPU variant has risen by 33%. This trend has simultaneously driven increased demand for US-based CSPs for 400G Switches and from AWS for AI accelerator cards using Annapurna network chips.

Consequently, some network manufacturers have seen their order forecast for Q4 grow by nearly 15%. TrendForce reports that the demand for high-end MLCCs in Q4 remains stable, allowing Japanese and Korean suppliers to better plan their capacity allocations in preparation for a surge in GB200 orders next year.

Weaker dollar and strengthening Asian currencies increase MLCC suppliers’ operational and pricing pressures

The US dollar has weakened due to the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cut cycle, leading to a rise in Asian currencies. The Japanese yen, in particular, broke the 140 yen-to-1 dollar mark in mid-September. TrendForce reveals that MLCC suppliers not only facing weaker demand in Q4 but also increased risks of foreign exchange losses, further adding to their operational pressures. In response, suppliers are planning to control capacity utilization rates and lower inventory levels to stabilize product pricing and maintain revenue and profitability.

TrendForce’s investigations show that the average capacity utilization rates for Japanese and Korean suppliers remain above 80%, while Taiwanese and Chinese manufacturers are operating at a more modest 60% to 70%. Suppliers have adopted a more cautious approach to operations and pricing strategies with the peak season in the second half of the year falling short of expectations and fourth quarter demand slowing down.