Passive Buyer Strategies Drive DRAM Contract Prices Down Across the Board in 1Q25

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TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that the DRAM market is expected to face downward pricing pressure in 1Q25 as seasonal weakness aligns with sluggish consumer demand for products like smartphones. Additionally, early stockpiling by notebook manufacturers—over potential import tariffs under the Trump administration—has further exacerbated the pricing decline.

Conventional DRAM prices are projected to drop by 8% to 13%. However, if HBM products are included, the anticipated price decline will range from 0% to 5%.

PC DRAM prices expected to drop by 8–13%; server DRAM by 5–10%

TrendForce reports that PC OEMs accelerated inventory reduction efforts amid weakened end-market sales and reversing DRAM price trends in 4Q24. This inventory-clearing strategy is expected to persist into 1Q25, further suppressing bit procurement volumes.

Sluggish consumer demand, increased DDR4 production from Chinese suppliers, and low-priced DRAM chips flooding the spot market will result in steeper DDR4 price declines compared to DDR5. As a result, PC DRAM prices are expected to continue their downward trajectory, with a wider decline than the previous quarter.

As for server DRAM products, both DDR5 and DDR4 contract prices are forecast to weaken due to weak seasonal demand in 1Q25. Additionally, manufacturers have shifted substantial DDR4 capacity to DDR5 production, and some HBM production capacity redirected to DDR5 has further increased DDR5 supply.

Meanwhile, DDR4 faces mounting downward pressure from ample inventory in distribution channels, high buyer stockpiles, and plans by Chinese suppliers to ramp up production in 2025. Consequently, DDR4 price declines are expected to accelerate.

Mobile DRAM decline slows; graphics DRAM faces continued weakness; consumer DRAM prices drop sharply

TrendForce points out that smartphone brands’ DRAM stockpiles have largely returned to healthy levels after two consecutive quarters of inventory adjustments. However, in 1Q25, smartphone brands are expected to maintain a passive procurement strategy to secure more favorable contract pricing.

Manufacturers are anticipated to frontload 1Q25 shipments by year-end to address inventory and financial pressures for 2024. This strategy is expected to result in contract price declines for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X, falling by 8–13% and 3–8%, respectively.

Demand for graphics DRAM is expected to remain subdued in 1Q25, with key drivers being GDDR7 stockpiling for next-generation GPUs. However, pricing trends will remain under pressure, influenced by broader DRAM market weakness and elevated buyer inventories. TrendForce forecasts an average price decline of 5% to 10% for graphics DRAM in 1Q25.

While some production capacity is gradually being redirected to HBM, graphics DRAM pricing is unlikely to maintain short-term stability due to its vulnerability to external market dynamics and elevated inventories.

Consumer DRAM prices began to decline in 4Q24, and buyers anticipate continued downward trends, resulting in a passive purchasing approach and strong negotiating leverage.

Weak sales of consumer products, limited DRAM capacity growth per device, and rising supplier inventories since 2H24 have amplified pricing pressures. Additionally, spot market oversupply and discount-driven sales are expected to lead to sharper contract price declines in 1Q25. Subsequently, prices for DDR3 and DDR4 are forecast to drop by 3%–8% and 10%–15%, respectively.