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January 16, 2025 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 1 minute
TrendForce’s latest investigations have revealed the U.S. economy outperformed market expectations in December 2024, with non-farm payrolls and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) delivering strong results. Consequently, the Federal Reserve may significantly scale back the frequency of rate cuts in 2025, prolonging a high-interest-rate environment. This scenario could dampen consumer spending and undermine corporate confidence in investment and expansion. TrendForce estimates that MLCC shipments will reach 1,146.7 billion units in 1Q25, marking a 3% QoQ decline.
Anticipation of Trump’s tax policies, growing GB200 orders, and Lunar New Year stockpiling fuel early-year inventory surge
TrendForce reports that major laptop brands such as Dell and HP have accelerated orders for educational laptop contracts awarded in the second half of 2024 to mitigate potential tariffs anticipated under President Trump’s administration starting January 2025. ODMs like Compal, Quanta, and Inventec have been asked to deliver shipments before January 20, boosting MLCC supplier demand early in the year.
Additionally, growing GB200 orders managed by Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron, coupled with stockpiling ahead of the Lunar New Year in late January, have further driven a surge in early 2025 MLCC shipments.
Despite this initial momentum, MLCC suppliers remain cautious. The expedited North American shipments may weaken Q2 demand for educational laptops, while potential trade restrictions and tariffs under the new administration could disrupt OEM and ODM production and shipping plans. These factors might also raise upstream supply chain costs and introduce uncertainty around production base relocations.
Slowing growth in consumer electronics: Demand for AI infrastructure stands out
Looking ahead to 2025, AI infrastructure—including servers, accelerators, and power management systems—will remain the primary driver of MLCC demand. Growth across other ICT industries, such as smartphones and notebooks, is expected to remain tepid, with average growth rates projected at under 10%.
TrendForce notes that MLCC suppliers are unlikely to achieve full capacity utilization this year due to persistent oversupply in the market. The ongoing challenge for the industry will be balancing pricing and order volumes—a critical test for navigating 2025.
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