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Gartner, Inc. highlighted several trends set to shape the automotive sector in 2025, as the industry faces regulatory pressure on emissions and intense growth from China.
“Software and electrification will remain the two main drivers of the automotive sector’s transformation. However, in 2025, automakers will face uncertainties regarding emission regulations and growing trade tensions between China and the West, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) market,” said Pedro Pacheco, VP Analyst at Gartner.
The evolving political landscape in the U.S. and European Union (EU) is reopening the discussion on vehicle emission regulations, creating uncertainty for the automotive industry. As a result, some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) may be reluctant to put EVs at the center of their strategy.
Gartner estimates EV (bus, car, van and heavy trucks) shipments will grow 17% in 2025. By 2030, Gartner predicts that more than 50% of all vehicle models marketed by automakers will be EVs.
Geopolitics Slows CASE Adoption
Trade barriers set by the U.S. and the EU against Chinese EVs will slow the adoption of connectivity, autonomy, software and electrification (CASE) in these regions, as Chinese EVs are, on average, the most advanced type of vehicles in these areas.
“Drone manufacturers and Chinese telecommunication companies are already feeling the impact of international sanctions, and robots are likely to follow,” said Bill Ray, Distinguished VP at Gartner. “The ubiquity of intelligent, updatable software, remotely accessible cameras and the integration of data gathering into the automotive business model make it inevitable that geopolitics will fragment the market and, therefore, slow adoption.”
Chinese automakers have a competitive edge in software and electrification, supported by vertical integration and efficient development, enabling them to offer advanced, affordable EVs. However, increasing trade barriers may diminish this advantage, limiting the variety of competitive EV products for consumers.
OEMs Expand Software Partnerships with Chinese OEMs
Legacy OEMs have struggled to advance their in-house software capabilities. As a result, many have made agreements with Chinese OEMs to acquire their vehicle electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture, thereby increasing their reliance on the software and hardware capabilities of Chinese EV makers.
Overcapacity Prompts OEM Plant Closures
For years, production overcapacity has been a challenge for several European and North American car factories. The recent increase in import tariffs on Chinese EVs imposed by the U.S. and the EU is likely to exacerbate this issue. In response, Chinese automakers may set up factories in Europe and the U.S. or in free-trade partners like Morocco or Turkey to maintain competitive pricing.
Gartner expects this situation to most likely lead to several automotive factories with low utilization to close or be sold to other automakers. This will also create a domino effect, leading to the closure of supplier factories. This will redefine the car manufacturing map of the U.S. and Europe, making low-cost countries the major hubs in automotive production capacity and supply chain.
