TV Brands May Pass U.S. Tariff Costs to Consumers; 2025 Shipments Expected to Drop 0.7%

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TrendForce’s latest research indicates that U.S. reciprocal tariffs are likely to drive TV brands to pass rising costs onto consumers through higher retail prices in the second half of 2025, further weakening consumer spending momentum. Meanwhile, China’s “trade-in” subsidy program in late 2024 had already pulled forward some demand, and despite the program’s extension into 2025, it is unlikely to stimulate additional purchases. Consequently, TrendForce projects global TV shipments in 2025 to decline by 0.7% YoY to 196.44 million units.

Brands pull forward shipments; 1Q25 TV shipments grow 6.1% YoY

Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, TCL, and Hisense ramped up shipments to North America at the end of 2024 in anticipation of higher U.S. import tariffs, which were initially expected to rise to 25% for goods from Mexico. Consequently, shipments remained robust even during the traditional off-season in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 45.59 million units—a YoY increase of 6.1%. Retail inventory levels for these four major brands in the U.S. also rose by an average of three to four weeks.

Tariffs drive 1H25 growth, but raise concerns about a weak peak season

The U.S. previously imposed 301 tariffs on TVs imported from China during Trump’s first term in 2018, raising the tariff rate from 3.9% to 11.4%. This accelerated the shift of production capacity from China to Vietnam and other countries.

In early April 2025, Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs, but products manufactured in Mexico and compliant with the USMCA agreement remain exempt, easing pressure on TV makers with factories in Mexico. On April 9th, the U.S. announced a 90-day delay in implementing the tariffs, temporarily lowering Vietnam’s tariff rate from 46% to 10%. Vietnam is the world’s second-largest TV production hub.

TrendForce notes that uncertainty around tariffs and the rush to import products during the grace period will boost TV shipments in the first half of 2025 to 94.18 million units—a 3.8% YoY increase. TCL and Hisense shipments are expected to grow by 15% and 7%, respectively, while U.S.-focused brand VIZIO may see a 20% YoY shipment surge.

Brands without sufficient production capacity in Mexico risk facing challenges if they cannot transfer production and supply chains locally by the end of the second quarter. They may be forced to pass on higher costs, limit promotional activities in the second half, and suffer market share losses. TrendForce warns that the “weak peak season” phenomenon could reemerge, with shipments dropping 4.5% YoY to 102.27 million units in the second half.

Chinese brands focus on Mini LED TVs and are expected to hit new shipment highs in 2025

In China, with the trade-in program continuing, major brands like TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi are focusing promotional efforts on Mini LED TVs. These TVs qualify for subsidies under energy-efficiency standards. Coupled with TCL and Hisense’s strengths in backlight design and supply chain cost advantages, rapid product rollouts and competitive pricing are expected to drive a 50% YoY surge in Mini LED TV shipments to 11.56 million units in 2025, with their combined market share rising to 64%.

Meanwhile, OLED TV shipments are set to see moderate growth. Samsung Electronics has strategically raised its OLED TV shipments target to 2.5 million units for the year, pushing total OLED TV shipments to an expected 6.79 million units—a 7.1% YoY increase.

However, in the mid-to-long term, OLED TVs face challenges; retail prices remain three to four times higher than Mini LED-backlit LCD TVs, Chinese brands show limited interest in OLED products, and panel production capacity is constrained. As a result, OLED TV shipments are projected to remain in the 6.5-7 million unit range for the foreseeable future.