Geopolitical Tensions and US Export Restrictions Slightly Temper AI Server Shipment Growth in 2025
July 2, 2025 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 2 minutes

TrendForce reports that major North American CSPs remain the primary drivers of AI server market growth. Steady demand is also being bolstered by tier-2 data centers and sovereign cloud projects in the Middle East and Europe. With sustained demand from North American CSPs and OEM customers, global AI server shipments are projected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025.
However, geopolitical tensions and US export restrictions impacting the Chinese market have led TrendForce to slightly revise its forecast, projecting a 24.3% YoY increase in global AI server shipments for the year.
Microsoft continues to focus investments in AI this year, which has partially suppressed purchases of general-purpose servers. For its AI infrastructure, Microsoft primarily adopts NVIDIA GPU-based solutions, while progress on its in-house ASIC development has been comparatively slow. Its next-generation Maia chips are expected to begin ramping up in 2026.
Meta has significantly increased its demand for general-purpose servers in response to the completion of new data centers, with most servers based on AMD platforms. The company is also actively expanding its AI server infrastructure and in-house ASIC development. Shipments volumes for its MTIA chips are expected to double by 2026.
Google has seen a notable increase in server demand, driven by sovereign cloud initiatives and the completion of new data centers in SEA. As a company with a relatively high adoption rate of self-developed chips, Google has begun mass deployment of its AI inference-focused TPU v6e chips, which have become mainstream in the first half of 2025.
AWS is currently centered on the Trainium v2 platform for its in-house chips. TrendForce notes that AWS has initiated development of multiple versions of Trainium v3, which are slated to begin mass production in 2026. Thanks to its expanding the Trainium platform and accelerated in-house AI strategy, AWS is expected to double its self-developed ASIC shipments in 2025, leading among US CSPs.
Oracle, compared to the other four CSPs, is more focused on purchasing AI servers and in-memory database (IMDB) servers. In 2025, Oracle plans to step up AI server infrastructure deployment and integrate its core cloud database services with AI applications. In response to sovereign cloud projects in the US, the company has also seen increased demand for NVIDIA’s GB Rack NVL72 solutions.
Additionally, many server enterprise OEMs are reassessing their market strategies for the second half of 2025 due to recent changes in international tariff policies. Currently, TrendForce estimates that total server shipments—including both general-purpose and AI servers—will see a YoY growth of approximately 5%, in line with previous projections.
Testimonial
"Advertising in PCB007 Magazine has been a great way to showcase our bare board testers to the right audience. The I-Connect007 team makes the process smooth and professional. We’re proud to be featured in such a trusted publication."
Klaus Koziol - atgSuggested Items
U.S. CHIPS Act Funding Detailed on SIA Website
09/12/2025 | Nolan Johnson, I-Connect007The U.S. CHIPS Act has moved well into the implementation stage in 2025. But where has that money gone? The Semiconductor Industry Association has been tracking these projects and provides details on its website. It was updated May. Among the five key programs being managed under CHIPS, two stand out as influencing advanced electronic packaging: the National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program (NAPMP), and the CHIPS Manufacturing USA Institute (MFG USA).
PsiQuantum Raises $1 Billion to Build Million-Qubit Scale, Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers
09/10/2025 | BUSINESS WIREPsiQuantum announced it has raised $1 billion in funding for its Series E round to build the world’s first commercially useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers.
I-Connect007 Editor’s Choice: Five Must-Reads for the Week
09/05/2025 | Andy Shaughnessy, I-Connect007It’s almost fall here in Atlanta, and that means that the temperature is finally dropping. And it quit raining! It’s been raining since March, and I’m so over it, as the social influencers say. Last night we grilled out on the deck, and it wasn’t hot, and we didn’t get rained on. Life is good. It was a busy week in the industry. In this installment of my must-reads, we say goodbye to Walt Custer, the man who made PCB data points interesting for the rest of us.
Defense Speak Interpreted: If CHIPS Cuts Back, What Happens to Electronics Packaging Funds?
09/02/2025 | Dennis Fritz -- Column: Defense Speak InterpretedIn my May column, I examined the topic of the CHIPS Act and its current status as a U.S. government program. I found that CHIPS activities continue, but some corporations have delayed or canceled them because of budget cuts or corporation-specific problems. However, CHIPS integrated circuits—mostly administered by the Department of Commerce—don’t fully drive the electronics interconnection activity being funded by the government. Let’s cover the progress/status of other programs:
U.S. Uses Secret Trackers to Trace AI Chips Diverted to China, Sources Say
08/18/2025 | I-Connect007 Editorial TeamTwo sources told Reuters that U.S. authorities have secretly placed location trackers in some advanced chip shipments they see as at high risk of illegal diversion to China. They said the trackers are intended to locate AI chips that are sent to locations restricted by U.S. export laws, but authorities only examine some shipments.