Geopolitical Tensions and US Export Restrictions Slightly Temper AI Server Shipment Growth in 2025

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TrendForce reports that major North American CSPs remain the primary drivers of AI server market growth. Steady demand is also being bolstered by tier-2 data centers and sovereign cloud projects in the Middle East and Europe. With sustained demand from North American CSPs and OEM customers, global AI server shipments are projected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025.

However, geopolitical tensions and US export restrictions impacting the Chinese market have led TrendForce to slightly revise its forecast, projecting a 24.3% YoY increase in global AI server shipments for the year.

Microsoft continues to focus investments in AI this year, which has partially suppressed purchases of general-purpose servers. For its AI infrastructure, Microsoft primarily adopts NVIDIA GPU-based solutions, while progress on its in-house ASIC development has been comparatively slow. Its next-generation Maia chips are expected to begin ramping up in 2026.

Meta has significantly increased its demand for general-purpose servers in response to the completion of new data centers, with most servers based on AMD platforms. The company is also actively expanding its AI server infrastructure and in-house ASIC development. Shipments volumes for its MTIA chips are expected to double by 2026.

Google has seen a notable increase in server demand, driven by sovereign cloud initiatives and the completion of new data centers in SEA. As a company with a relatively high adoption rate of self-developed chips, Google has begun mass deployment of its AI inference-focused TPU v6e chips, which have become mainstream in the first half of 2025.

AWS is currently centered on the Trainium v2 platform for its in-house chips. TrendForce notes that AWS has initiated development of multiple versions of Trainium v3, which are slated to begin mass production in 2026. Thanks to its expanding the Trainium platform and accelerated in-house AI strategy, AWS is expected to double its self-developed ASIC shipments in 2025, leading among US CSPs.

Oracle, compared to the other four CSPs, is more focused on purchasing AI servers and in-memory database (IMDB) servers. In 2025, Oracle plans to step up AI server infrastructure deployment and integrate its core cloud database services with AI applications. In response to sovereign cloud projects in the US, the company has also seen increased demand for NVIDIA’s GB Rack NVL72 solutions.

Additionally, many server enterprise OEMs are reassessing their market strategies for the second half of 2025 due to recent changes in international tariff policies. Currently, TrendForce estimates that total server shipments—including both general-purpose and AI servers—will see a YoY growth of approximately 5%, in line with previous projections.