Airbus Projects Resilient Growth of Services Market in the Next 20 Years

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In its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF), Airbus anticipates that the total demand for services will see a 10% year-on-year increase in 2025, and this will continue to grow alongside expanded air traffic, reaching an estimated value of US$311 billion by 2044 (anticipating a CAGR of 3.6%).

With around half of the global fleet of aircraft above 100 seats composed of Airbus aircraft, the service sector to keep these aircraft flying efficiently shows a strong growth potential. Global passenger traffic is set to reach a record five billion passengers in 2025, with airlines facing the challenge of maintaining high levels of fleet availability, reliability and operational excellence as well as efficiency. People and commerce are driving air traffic growth and, along with this, the role of the manufacturer is being further extended to support its customers with an integral services partner throughout the entire aircraft lifecycle.

The Airbus GSF outlines five key segments in the Services domain driving this growth with the global commercial fleet set to nearly double to over 49,000 aircraft by 2044, and the number of annual passengers doubling to 10 billion over the same period:

Off-Wing Maintenance (2025: US$107 billion; 2044: US$218 billion) – The largest aftermarket segment is driven by an increasing number of shop visits due to an aging and growing global fleet. Material supply accounts for 85% of the value of this category, reflecting the demand for robust parts support and repair capability.

On-Wing Maintenance (2025: US$21 billion, 2044: US$34 billion) – A crucial area, ranging from frequent light inspections to heavy checks, representing routine maintenance growth in line with the overall growing global fleet.

Modifications & Upgrades (2025: US$12 billion; 2044: US$17 billion) – A dynamic sector with significant activity in complex cabin and systems upgrades to enhance passenger experience and extend the aircraft lifecycle.

Digital & Connectivity (2025: US$9 billion, 2044: US$26 billion) – The fastest-growing sector, with the aim of enabling smarter, more connected operations, from predictive maintenance and fuel-saving flight paths to seamless passenger experience.

Training (2025: US$10 billion, 2044: US$17 billion) – Additional and advanced human skills remain key to meet the growing demand. Over 2.35 million new aviation professionals will be needed by 2044, including 633,000 new pilots, 705,000 new technicians and 1.010,000 new cabin crew.

“With the reclustering of the Airbus GSF, we consider a bigger part of the ecosystem in which our customers operate. Especially digital solutions are becoming real multipliers, enabling operators to scale up without compromising on reliability or cost. This can lead to unlocking the potential of more than US$83 billion in annual operational savings for our customers, through an increasing number of digitally connected aircraft - from 11,000 today to over 40,000 by 2044”, highlights Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP Customer Services at Airbus.

In addition, Airbus is exploring two further market segments that are driving customer demand: 

Maintenance Operations Support  – This includes essential enablers such as engineering services, technical records, inventory management, and fleet-wide planning for MROs and operators alike.

Ground Operations – This field is a critical link between airside efficiency and aircraft turnaround performance where important technological developments are happening and new services will be made available

While China, Europe and the CIS and North America will become the top three largest services markets by 2044 in terms of total demand, the strongest top three growth rates by CAGR are expected in South Asia, China and the Asia-Pacific region.