Memory Industry to Maintain Cautious CapEx in 2026, with Limited Impact on Bit Supply Growth

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TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that despite higher ASPs boosting profitability across the memory industry, capital spending on DRAM and NAND Flash is only anticipated to increase modestly in 2026. This limited investment growth is unlikely to significantly affect bit output. Instead, the emphasis is shifting from capacity expansion to advancements such as process technology upgrades, higher-layer stacking, hybrid bonding, and high-value products such as HBM.

In the DRAM sector, total capital expenditure is expected to reach US$53.7 billion in 2025 and rise to $61.3 billion in 2026, representing about 14% YoY growth. For NAND Flash, spending is projected to rise from $21.1 billion in 2025 to $22.2 billion in 2026, a roughly 5% increase.

Micron is expected to be the most aggressive investor among DRAM suppliers, with the company’s 2026 CapEx projected at $13.5 billion, up 23% YoY, and focusing primarily on 1-gamma node adoption and expanding TSV equipment. SK Hynix will also post strong growth, with spending expected to reach $20.5 billion, up 17% YoY, thanks to HBM4 capacity expansion at the M15x fab. Samsung plans to invest $20 billion—up 11% YoY—to advance 1C process HBM production and slightly expand P4L wafer capacity.

TrendForce reports that cleanroom capacity in the DRAM industry remains limited. Only Samsung and SK hynix are able to slightly expand their production lines, whereas Micron is waiting for its new ID1 fab in the United States to become operational. This is not expected to happen before 2027. Consequently, additional CapEx will have a minimal impact on bit supply growth in 2026.

In the NAND Flash segment, Kioxia/SanDisk and YMTC—both lacking DRAM businesses—are leading with the most assertive strategies to enhance their market positions. Kioxia/SanDisk plans a 41% YoY boost in investments to $4.5 billion, focusing on expanding BiCS8 production and supporting BiCS9 R&D.

Micron plans a modest capacity increase concentrated on G9 process development and the enterprise SSD market, with CapEx up 63% YoY. In comparison, Samsung and SK Hynix/Solidigm are expected to reduce or limit NAND Flash investments, shifting their focus to HBM and DRAM.

TrendForce highlights that the surge in NAND Flash demand is structural, not temporary. This trend is fueled by the fast-growing needs for AI storage and HDD supply shortages, leading CSPs to reallocate orders to enterprise SSDs.

However, after years of volatile market cycles, many suppliers have become more cautious with their CapEx and expansion plans. Growth in bit supply will stay limited, as 2026 investments focus more on process upgrades and hybrid bonding rather than capacity expansion. TrendForce predicts the NAND Flash market will remain in tight supply throughout 2026.