Higher DDR5 Profitability Intensifies Capacity Crowding, Strengthening HBM3e Pricing Momentum in 2026

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TrendForce’s latest research indicates that tight supply conditions in the memory market have recently driven a sharp rise in conventional DRAM prices. While HBM3e has also benefited from upward revisions to GPU and ASIC orders—pushing its prices higher—the ASP gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is expected to continue to narrow significantly over the next year.

TrendForce reports that in May 2025, Nvidia was the first to start procurement talks for 2026 with the three main DRAM suppliers. At that point, prices were predominantly driven by buyers, leading to early HBM3e purchase prices for 2026 that were significantly lower than in 2025.

However, the supply-demand balance in the market started shifting quickly in 3Q25. The increased deployment of AI-driven servers exceeded expectations, prompting major CSPs to expand their DDR5 server inventories and develop procurement strategies for 2026–2027. As a result, a widespread shortage has emerged, and DRAM suppliers have significantly raised product prices.

TrendForce reports that 4Q25 server DDR5 contract prices have risen substantially above market expectations, considerably improving wafer profitability and accelerating convergence with HBM3e pricing. Whereas HBM3e prices were previously four to five times higher than server DDR5, the gap is expected to narrow to one to two times by the end of 2026.

As the profitability of conventional DRAM improves, some suppliers are shifting capacity toward DDR5, creating more room for HBM3e price increases. Additionally, rising demand for GPUs and ASICs has led major buyers to increase HBM3e purchases to support AI system deployment next year. These factors combined have enabled suppliers to regain pricing power and renegotiate previously undervalued contracts. Consequently, TrendForce expects HBM3e ASPs to see a slight increase in 2026.