Revises Down 2026 Global Notebook Shipments to a 5.4% YoY Decline

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TrendForce’s recent findings show that, amid a sluggish economic recovery and cautious consumer spending, surging memory prices are squeezing notebook brands’ profit margins and pricing freedom. Consequently, TrendForce has reduced its 2026 global projection for notebook shipments to a 5.4% YoY decrease, totaling around 173 million units. This shift indicates a more conservative approach by brands toward inventory management, promotions, and product setups in response to increasing cost pressures.

If memory price increases do not significantly slow down by the second quarter of 2026 and brands cannot pass on higher costs, the demand for entry-level and consumer notebooks might decline further. In this scenario, full-year 2026 shipments could turn more pessimistic, decreasing by as much as 10.1% YoY.

TrendForce notes that the notebook market relies heavily on supply-chain relationships, product offerings, channel strategies, and enterprise demand. Brands that maintain long-term, stable partnerships with major memory suppliers, have a higher proportion of commercial and mid-to-high-end products, and mature channel and pricing management, are better equipped to withstand current memory price increases and ensure shipment stability.

Apple serves as a prime example. Despite increasing memory costs, its integrated supply chain and robust pricing power allow for greater flexibility in adjusting its product lineup. Additionally, Apple’s substantial and steady procurement volumes, along with a clear product release schedule and highly predictable demand planning, facilitate securing priority cooperation with memory suppliers.

Amid a tough market environment, Apple aims to introduce a 12.9-inch model in spring 2026 targeting the entry-to-mid-range segment. Although the timing isn't perfect, ongoing supply chain efficiencies, scale benefits, and competitive pricing should help the product attract buyers, boosting market penetration and sustained shipment performance.

For Lenovo, the leading notebook vendor by volume worldwide, MSRP hikes might be unavoidable. Nevertheless, its scale benefits and strong supply chain might help limit price increases, offering more flexibility in managing costs and possibly allowing it to grow its market share despite market trends.

TrendForce further notes that the increase in memory prices will also reduce panel demand in 2026, leading to an estimated 7.9% YoY drop in total notebook panel shipments. LCD panels will experience even sharper declines due to both weakening notebook demand and the growing adoption of OLED technology.

Although OLED notebook panels are still expected to grow in 2026 as brands expand their OLED model offerings, the rising cost of memory components, which may be reflected in higher end prices, could reduce consumer demand and lead to a slowdown in OLED panel shipment growth.