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TrendForce’s latest investigation indicates that with the Lunar New Year in February, China’s top three LCD TV panel makers—BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC—are planning to suspend production at downstream module facilities for five to ten days to cut labor costs and avoid rising inventories. Front-end fabs will also reduce their output accordingly. As a result, LCD TV panel utilization rates for 1Q26 are projected to drop by 3.5 percentage points QoQ to 87.7%, leading the market towards a tighter supply-demand balance.
Alongside the planned Lunar New Year production reductions by three Chinese panel makers, fewer working days in February will further limit output. TrendForce predicts that the total TV panel supply area in 1Q26 will drop by 3.8% QoQ.
China has also reaffirmed its trade-in subsidy program, which provides a 15% subsidy on Tier-1 energy-efficient TVs. Together with inventory buildup ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, these factors are likely to partially offset seasonal downturns and cap the decline in TV panel demand at only 1.8% QoQ.
Looking ahead to 2026, TV panel makers will continue their focus on a “larger-size” approach. Nevertheless, growth in ultra-large TV panels is anticipated to slow down due to weaker demand in certain markets and a high base effect. Consequently, panel makers are modifying their product mix by shifting demand from smaller sizes like 23.6-inch and 32-inch to larger sizes such as 43-inch and 50-inch. This trend is expected to increase the average TV panel size and boost overall demand area growth.
TrendForce observes that ongoing global geopolitical and economic uncertainties, combined with rising memory prices, pose increased risks to downstream TV panel demand. Panel makers must improve their production scheduling flexibility and responsiveness to market shifts to succeed in the upcoming year. In the longer term, the lack of new LCD TV panel capacity expansions or major investments is a positive sign for panel prices and overall industry health.
