AI Reshapes the Industry Landscape: Global PCB Output to $105.2 Billion in 2026, Up 13.9% YoY

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Driven by the rapid expansion of AI computing demand, the global printed circuit board (PCB) industry is entering a new phase of structural growth. According to the latest analysis by TPCA and ISTI (Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy) of ITRI, despite persistent uncertainties in 2025 stemming from geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and exchange-rate volatility, continued growth in AI server and high-performance computing (HPC) demand is accelerating the industry’s shift toward higher-end and higher-value development.

Global PCB output value is projected to reach US$92.36 billion in 2025, representing a robust year-on-year growth of 15.4%. Looking ahead to 2026, output is expected to further climb to US$105.2 billion, up 13.9% year-on-year, underscoring AI’s role as the key engine driving industry upgrading and value restructuring.

AI Computing “Siphon Effect” Intensifies; Memory Imbalances Ripple Across End Markets

As AI computing demand surges, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a pronounced “capacity siphon effect.” Global memory manufacturers are reallocating resources toward high-margin products such as HBM and DDR5, compressing the supply of traditional DRAM and NAND Flash used in smartphones and PCs, and pushing up overall memory prices. ISTI notes that memory accounts for approximately 15–20% of the bill of materials (BOM) in mid- to low-end smartphones and about 10–15% in high-end models. Continued price increases will force brands to raise retail prices, delay specification upgrades, or adjust product portfolios—ultimately dampening market demand.

In the PC market, a replacement cycle was widely anticipated for 2026, supported by the end of Windows 10 support in October 2025 and the gradual integration of generative AI features into operating systems. However, memory shortages and consecutive quarters of double-digit price hikes have significantly raised system manufacturing costs and weakened market momentum. Major brands including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have signaled price increases of 15–20%. IDC now forecasts that global PC shipments will decline by 2.4% in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of only 0.9% from 2025 to 2029.

As a result, while PCB manufacturers benefit from AI server and high-end computing demand, they must remain vigilant against slowing consumer electronics demand and customer inventory adjustments. Strengthening inventory management and enhancing production flexibility will be essential to mitigate the operational impact of order volatility.

Advanced Packaging Bottlenecks Emerge; Glass Substrates Usher in a Process Revolution

Amid the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, Gartner projects that global AI infrastructure IT spending will reach US$2.3 trillion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.6% from 2025 to 2029—driven primarily by hyperscale cloud service providers. As large language models cross the trillion-parameter threshold, 2026 marks a critical inflection point for AI development, with hardware demand extending from model training to large-scale inference and Physical AI applications.

Goldman Sachs estimates that NVIDIA’s Blackwell and Rubin architectures will keep CoWoS capacity structurally tight over the long term, with bottlenecks centered on warpage and thermal stress challenges arising from ultra-large die sizes. As silicon interposer areas continue to expand, yields decline and costs rise, forcing the industry to accelerate the transition toward new architectures such as CoWoS-R and CoWoS-L, while simultaneously driving up ABF substrate demand and creating structural supply pressure.

Against this backdrop, glass substrates are widely regarded as a key material to break through the limitations of large-format packaging. Compared with organic substrates, glass offers higher rigidity, lower warpage, lower dielectric loss, and superior dimensional stability, making it a critical technology path for overcoming ultra-large package constraints. In recent years, SKC, Samsung, and Intel have moved toward mass production. Leveraging strengths in substrate manufacturing and advanced packaging/test, Taiwanese companies—supported by vertically integrated ecosystems—are well positioned to secure strategic roles within the AI and HPC packaging supply chain.

Embracing the AI Transformation: Building PCB Resilience and Global Competitiveness on Taiwan’s Strengths

The AI wave is reshaping the global PCB landscape. Rapid growth in high-end computing, AI servers, and high-speed transmission applications continues to raise the bar for process and materials technologies. For Taiwan, this is not merely a demand cycle—it is a pivotal opportunity to elevate industrial positioning.

Deeply embedded within the semiconductor and electronics manufacturing ecosystem, Taiwan’s PCB industry benefits from a complete industrial cluster, rapid mass-production capability, and strong engineering integration. These advantages enable Taiwan to act as a critical global supplier in the race toward higher-end manufacturing and materials innovation. However, as memory and end-market structures shift rapidly and business cycles become more volatile, risks associated with capacity planning, capital expenditure, and product portfolio decisions are rising. Whether companies can manage uncertainty with a more forward-looking perspective will directly determine Taiwan’s ability to sustain its leadership.

At the same time, escalating geopolitical risks and evolving trade policies are fundamentally rewriting the logic of global supply chains. For Taiwan’s highly export-oriented PCB industry, supply-chain reconfiguration is no longer a question of cost and efficiency alone—it has become a comprehensive strategic issue encompassing capacity deployment, customer diversification, regulatory compliance, cybersecurity resilience, and sustainability governance. Maintaining control over core technologies and critical processes while ensuring supply stability and trust in a globally distributed footprint is central to industrial resilience.

In this highly uncertain and rapidly evolving environment, TPCA will continue to serve as the industry’s platform and strategic bridge—integrating resources across government, industry, academia, and research institutions; deepening technical exchange and policy dialogue; and helping member companies systematically track trends, identify risks, and connect with global industrial and policy networks.

In response to the industry’s urgent need for risk governance and strategic planning under the new landscape, TPCA will release the Taiwan PCB Industry Risk Governance Strategy this March. Structured around four pillars—High-End & Low-Carbon, Digital & Intelligent Transformation, Global Resilience, and Talent Development—the report will provide concrete action recommendations to support the Taiwanese PCB industry in upgrading with confidence, strengthening resilience, and continuing to serve as a critical hub and global leader in the evolving competitive arena.