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It's Only Common Sense: Is That the Sun I See?

Editor's Note: To listen to Dan's weekly column, as you've always done in the past, click here. For the written transcript, keep reading...I’ve got to ask: Have we been down so long that we can’t imagine things getting better? It seems like we've been talking doom and gloom for so long that it's become a habit. It's been over five years now since things got so bad the Presidential candidates thought about putting their campaigns on hold to work on an economy on the brink of collapse. Banks were falling, car companies were in need of a handout, and there was even the threat of a pandemic so terrible it would wipe us all out.

On a Jet Blue red-eye one night in October of 2008 I had to turn off the on-board TV because I thought my head was going to explode from all the bad news being thrown at me.

Our own industry feels like it's been in a downswing for much longer than five years. Actually, our threatened demise goes all the way back to late 2001. Think about it: We have been experiencing a death of a thousand cuts since then, at least on this side of the pond.

Isn’t it time that we clear those dark clouds away from our heads? Here’s the deal--no matter what the naysayers think, the world is a better place. Our car companies are back, the banks are doing better, the jobless rate is down, housing is up, and, generally speaking, everything is going in the right direction for most of the world. Of course, some people find it politically expedient to say it’s not, but let’s deal with reality: Things are, in fact, getting better.

So what about our industry? Are things getting better? I think so, and here are a few reasons why:

First, look around you. Circuit boards are everywhere. A few years ago when I was working with Photocircuits they were building every single circuit board in Chrysler automobiles, and there were 16 of them, just 16 as opposed to now when there are literally hundreds of circuit boards in every car rolling off the assembly line. And this is only going to mean bigger and better times for us as North America becomes a better place to build cars. I heard the other day that the automotive industry is making a concerted effort to buy more components right here in the U.S. That’s something we can be happy about.

Then you have medical electronics. Have you been to the doctor’s office lately? Or how about the hospital, a place where you are literally surrounded by electronic equipment loaded with printed circuit boards? Just a few years ago, if someone had told me that we would be using so many circuit boards in medical electronics, I would not have believed it. And the very good news about this is that most medical electronics are built in the U.S.; they never really did go offshore, except maybe to Europe, and I guess I don’t call that offshore anymore. That’s something to be happy about.

Companies are also coming back. Motorola is putting together a factory to build phones in Texas, and a number of other companies have decided that Mexico might not be a bad place to build product, so they are setting up manufacturing facilities there. And, from an American point of view, Mexico is a heck of a lot better than China, especially for our industry. There are no board shops in Mexico and any news ones that open up will most likely be American. That’s something to be happy about.

Then there are the futurists, the prognosticators. who claim that the global PCB market is about to grow from a current $52 billion to a whopping $92 billion in just four years. Even if they are overly optimistic by 50% that would still be great for all of us. Now that is really something to be happy about.

With all things considered, here is what we are seeing out there--there are fewer shops, which is something we all know and talk about constantly. And, for the most part, because of economic Darwinism, many of the ones left are good shops. The better run shops have survived the bad times to live another day and take advantage of the good things that are starting to happen. This means that those better companies will grow to thrive in these better times. It could mean that for the first time in many years we start seeing shops start to make significant money which will get the attention of the financial community which means what investing in our industry will rejuvenate. That is, indeed, something to be happy about.

So, hang in there and hold on to your hat because better days are right around the corner. The world is changing right before our eyes and, for those of you who have made it through the storm, good things could be coming your way. It’s only common sense.