Mobile PC Shipment Forecast for 2016 Shows Glimmer of Hope for Notebooks

Annual shipments of notebooks are expected to decline significantly this year despite vendors’ best efforts during the year’s second half. This dismal result is attributed to the impact of weak shipments in the year’s first half and challenges in inventory reduction. According to global market research firm TrendForce, total notebook shipments for 2015 will reach around 164.4 million units, down 6.4% year on year.

“This year has been an extraordinary tough for the notebook market,” said TrendForce notebook analyst Anita Wang. “However shipments will recover in 2016, when more branded vendors will be entering the market, including Xiaomi and Huawei. Consumers have delayed buying notebooks due to the free upgrade of Windows 10 this year, but this slump in purchases will dissipate by next year; and new products released by new market entrants will spur the market. We estimate that total notebook shipments for 2016 will increase a little by 1% year on year to 165 million units.”

Demand for tablets, on the other hand, has become soft as these devices are still mainly limited to Internet browsing and entertainment in terms of functionality. With no novel features that can pique consumers’ interests, small tablets are increasingly being replaced by smartphones, which continue to grow in size. Hence, TrendForce has lowered its tablet shipment forecast for 2015 to 163.4 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 14.9%. 

Tablet shipments will remain weak next year as large smartphones continue to affect tablet sales. “Business products such as Apple’s iPad Pro have high unit prices, so they will not be able to offset the decline in small tablet shipments even if they do become a market success,” Wang noted. “Our estimation indicates that a total of 153.4 million tablets will be shipped in 2016, down 6.1% year on year.”

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