Autonomous Trends will Radically Change the Automotive Industry Landscape

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

• Numerous partnerships, acquisitions and joint ventures in software, self-driving technology …
• The involvement of Tesla within the electric vehicles industry
• The new role played by the leaders of the consumer electronic area

To be fully autonomous, a car needs numerous sensors including radar sensors (short and long range), ultra-sonic sensors, cameras (visible, NIR , LWIR ), LIDAR ) and dead reckoning sensors... According to Yole’s analysts, the “autonomy pack” that will be found in 2030 costs today between US$ 10,000 and US$ 15,000, and will decrease for the next 10 years leading to a strong adoption.

“The technologies are available but important improvement must be clearly done to reduce costs, especially LIDAR and high-end GPS costs” confirms Dr Eric Mounier, Senior Technology & Market Analyst, MEMS & Sensors at Yole.

By 2045, Yole is expecting 29 sensors to ensure the full autonomy of the vehicle. Indeed the number of sensors strongly increases prior to the sensor fusion stage, where sensors will be full exploited: long range radar, surround camera and ultrasonic sensors are part of the vehicle between 2010 and 2015; between 2020 and 2045, Yole’s analysts identify much more sensors and so new functionalities… “The sensor modules volumes will present a 17% CAGR growth between 2015 and 2030”, details Dr Guillaume Girardin, Technology & Market Analyst, MEMS & Sensors at Yole.

Under this analysis, Yole listed 5 different levels of autonomy between 2012 and after 2040. Additional functionalities at every level have been also determined by Yole’s team. For example, in 2022 (level #3), Yole forecasts the following functionalities: Park Assist – Adaptive Cruise Control – Lane Keeping Assist – Lane Departure Warning System already in place since 2015. Plus Autonomous Emergency Braking, Driver Monitoring, Traffic Jam Assist. At this level, a car will embed for US$2,200 of sensors (ADAS only): it combines ultrasonic, radar LRR and radar SRR, long distance camera, camera surround, stereo camera, microbolometer, LIDAR and dead reckoning… And more. About 29 sensors have been identified at level #3, against 6 sensors at the level #1 (before 2012).

“This increasing number of sensors will benefit to the equipment makers but also to the semiconductor companies,” says Dr Mounier from Yole. “With more than 650 million units per year by 2030, automotive supply chain will face many challenges and will experience a tough battle.”

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