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U.S. Industrial Outlook: Employment Gains Should Lead to Growth in 2016
December 28, 2015 | MAPI FoundationEstimated reading time: 2 minutes
The outlook is improved for 2017, with growth likely in 21 industries, led by mining, oil and gas field machinery at 14%. No industries are expected to decline, but 2—iron and steel and paper production—are forecast to be flat.
According to the report, non-high-tech manufacturing production (which accounts for 95% of the total) is anticipated to increase 2.1% in 2016, 3.0% in 2017, and 2.6% in 2018. High-tech industrial production (computers and electronic products) is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017, and 5.5% in 2018.
During the report period (August through October 2015 for most sectors), 16 of the 27 industries Meckstroth monitors had inflation-adjusted new orders or production at or above the level of one year prior, and 11 declined. The 16 industries were one fewer than in the previous report.
Meckstroth reported that 6 industries are in the accelerating growth (recovery) phase of the business cycle, 10 are in the decelerating growth (expansion) phase, 8 are in the accelerating decline (either early recession or mid-recession) phase, and 3 are in the decelerating decline (late recession or very mild recession) phase.
The December report traditionally offers a five-year forecast horizon. Both manufacturing production and GDP are predicted to average 2.6% annual growth from 2016 to 2020.
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