IHS Small Business Jobs Index Remains Positive in December

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To close 2015, the Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index decreased to 100.37, down 0.05 percent from November and 0.19 percent from 2014. The Mountain region was the top-performing regional index and had the strongest 12-month growth rate. Texas surpassed Washington to lead states tracked by the index. Dallas remained the top-ranked metro area, outpacing other metros throughout 2015. Other Services (except Public Administration)*, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, ranked as the top industry sector, followed by Construction.

“December 2015 marks the 51st consecutive month job gains have exceeded the pace of our base year over a decade ago,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS. “Nevertheless, 2015 was the softest year for small business employment growth since 2011.”

“The national index steadily trended downward throughout much of the 2015. What that tells us is that while small businesses certainly added jobs this year, the pace at which they did so slowed,” said Martin Mucci, president and CEO of Paychex.

National Index

The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index decreased to 100.37 in December as 2015 ended consistently with a downward trend since the index peaked in April 2014 (101.26). Though expansion is still evident, the 12-month growth rate is -0.19 percent with gains continuing to slow each of the past five years following the low point of the recession. Analyzing the national index in 2015, there were increases in the first quarter, followed by consecutive declines in the second and third quarters, capped with little movement in the fourth quarter.

Regional Employment

With its eighth increase of 2015, Mountain is the top-ranked regional index and boasts the best 12-month growth rate at 0.48 percent. The Mountain and West South Central lead growth with index levels above 101, while the Middle Atlantic and East North Central remain below 100. After a large jump in November, the pace of employment growth in the Middle Atlantic slowed slightly in December as it fell back to the lowest index among regions, 99.71. After falling below 100 for the first time in three years last month, East South Central rebounded 0.58 percent in December.

State Employment Trend

Washington dropped 0.76 percent in December as Texas overtook the top spot among states at 102.61. Florida and Georgia, the two southernmost states in the South Atlantic region, are ranked third and fourth at 101.50 and 101.47, respectively. Conversely, the two northernmost South Atlantic states analyzed, Virginia and Maryland, have the lowest-ranked state indexes, slightly above 99. Despite a drop in December, New Jersey remains above 100 with the best 12-month growth rate, 2.25 percent. After trending below 100 for most of 2015, Massachusetts increased to 100.31 in December to firmly close the year above the national baseline.

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